986
FXUS61 KRNK 121716
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
116 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain its presence over the area into
Thursday. A backdoor front tracks south through the mid-Atlantic
Friday, before high pressure works in again for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 109 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Mix of sun and clouds this afternoon. A sprinkle possible in
the mountains.

2) Mainly dry but cannot rule out isolated mountain convection
Thu afternoon.

Expect a couple of weak impulses to keep some clouds around at
times through the day. 12z RNK sounding showed higher RH in the
850-700 mb range with a pwat of 0.77". Some of the high res
models are trying to pop up some showers along the ridges this
afternoon, but expecting little if any coverage. Added a token
sprinkle or light shower here and there but generally will be
dry and seasonably warm this afternoon.

Clouds will stay mixed across the sky into tonight and should be
a little milder, temperatures slipping into the mid 50s to lower
60s west to east. Could start to see patchy fog across river
bottoms toward dawn.

Another shortwave/vort tracks across Thursday. Enough low level
moisture should be available to trigger some isolated convection
along/west of the Blue Ridge, but appears only a couple of
high-res solutions are hinting at this. Given the heating and
environment, leaning toward a few showers/storms popping up but
majority of you will remain dry.

Temperatures start to warm a bit reaching the 80s for most of
the area, with some 70s in the higher mountains.

Forecast confidence is average on pops/sky cover, but above
average on temps/winds.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EDT Wednesday...

1.Mostly a dry forecast.

A cold front will approach the area on Friday with a lee trough
developing in the afternoon. As the front crosses the
mountains, a jump to the lee trough is expected. Any storms
moving across the mountains with the front should fade as they
move to the Blue Ridge. A line of convection should redevelop in
the central Virginia piedmont (LYH northward) late in the day.
Warm air advection in ahead of the front will have temperatures
in the 80s across the mountains and low to mid 90s in the
foothills and piedmont.

Following the frontal passage Friday night, high pressure will
wedge south into the Carolinas. Temperatures will be 5F-7F
cooler than Friday, but will remain warmer than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Points:

1. Heat wave possible next week.

Surface high pressure will slide off the mid Atlantic coast on
Sunday. An upper level ridge will move over the region by
Monday, bringing heat and humidity to the area. Temperatures
will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s through at least the
middle of next week, possibly longer. The threat of afternoon
and evening thunderstorm are possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR expected through the period. Expect potential IFR fog
at LWB by 10-12z Thu.

Forecast confidence is high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through Sunday. Except could be some storms
Friday into Friday evening that may bring sub-VFR especially
north of a line from BKW-ROA-LYH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH/WP