192
FXUS61 KRNK 070530
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
130 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the southwest today and linger
into Saturday. Another front tracks into the area Sunday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with mainly dry weather for
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1221 AM EDT Friday...

Scattered to broken clouds will clear out through the morning,
with drier air to our northwest working into the mountains this
morning and piedmont by afternoon. Should be a fairly sunny day
with highs close to normal with lower to mid 80s east to lower
to mid 70s west. You will notice lower humidity as
west/northwest winds will be driving dewpoints down. A few gusts
to 20-25 mph possible, especially mountains.

Keeping it clear and cooler Friday night with high pressure
tracking into the southern Appalachians. Lows will be in the 50s
for most, but some 40s in the mountains are likely as well.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Near normal temperatures.
2. Scattered showers/few storms on Sunday into Sunday night.

A look at the 6 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows a persistent upper low centered near the
Ontario/Quebec border through the period. However, a couple
associated shortwave troughs are expected to progress around this
low and cross our region. The first of these is expected Friday
evening just east of the region, with the second on Sunday evening.
At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend from far eastern
VA southwest along the coast of the Carolinas Friday evening. By
Saturday, a weak high pressure center moves into the area. On
Sunday, our next cold front is expected to cross the area and be
east of the region by the end of Sunday night.

Output from the 6 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures averaging +16C on Saturday, +14C to +16C
for Saturday and +12C to +14C for Sunday. Precipitable Water values
are expected to average 0.75 inches or slightly less Friday night
into Saturday and 1.25 inches Sunday. The values Friday night into
Saturday fall within the 2.5 to 10 percentile range of the 30-year
climatology.

The above weather scenario points to a period with around
normal temperatures. Primarily dry conditions are expected
through Saturday night. Sunday into Sunday night, look for a
return of showers with the passage of the cold front and
residual activity from upslope northwest flow across Southeast
West Virginia late Sunday night. Thunderstorm potential looks
low with forecast CAPE on most models under 500 J/kg.

Confidence in the above weather pattern is moderate to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Temperatures trending from slightly below to slightly above
average.
2. While precipitation chances will not be zero through the period,
the vast majority of the region will be dry.
3. While at most scattered in coverage, the mountains have the
greatest potential to experience showers.

A look at the 6 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows a persistent long wave trough extending from southeast
Canada into the Ohio Valley. Each day Monday through Thursday, the
trough is expected to remain nearly stationary, but there will a
gradual trend towards less amplification as ridging across western
CONUS shifts into the center of the nation. At the surface, on
Monday, a cold front will be positioned along the Atlantic coast.
High pressure will be centered across the Central Plains States and
Upper Mississippi River Valley. On Tuesday and into Wednesday, a
ridge of high pressure will be over the region. On Thursday, is
still expected to be over the general area, but potentially trending
weaker.

Output from the 6 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures around +14C for Monday, +14C to +16C for
Tuesday, +16C on Wednesday and a little over +16C for Thursday.
Precipitable Water values on Monday are expected to average 1.00
inch on Monday and Tuesday, 1.25 inch on Wednesday and 1.00 to 1.25
inches for Thursday.

The above weather scenario points towards a time period with limited
precipitation chances and temperature around or slightly cooler than
normal for this of year through Tuesday. Around or slight above
normal temperatures are expected Wednesday into Thursday. The best
chances for showers will come on Monday, and perhaps Monday night
while we are still within a northwest flow pattern. For Tuesday
through Thursday, while precipitation chances will be low, they are
not expected to be zero. While we expect a general region of surface
high pressure over the region, additionally over the area aloft will
be a weakening upper level trough. The trough, and its expected
steep lapse rate aloft, will help promote convection development
above where any fledgling towering cumulus develop during the peak
heating of the afternoon. Coverage will be isolated with the vast
majority of the area receiving no precipitation.

Confidence in the above weather pattern is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1226 AM EDT Friday...

VFR expected through the period as drier air works in from the
west. A small window of IFR fog at LWB cannot be ruled out, and
some models tank LWB at 1/4sm, but given the drier air will lean
toward tempo 3sm.

West/northwest winds are going to pick up after 14z today with a
few gusts to 20-25kts. Winds subside by 00z/Sat.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR for most of the period. Exceptions being a few shower/storms
Sunday could bring sub-VFR mainly to the mountains. Isolated
chances of showers/storms Monday-Tuesday so low confidence on
sub-VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DB/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DB/WP