579
FXUS61 KRNK 110635
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
235 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather through the work week,
bringing dry weather to the region. Temperatures trend warmer
with upper 80s and 90s possible for highs beginning Thursday.
The next chance of rain may occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Warm and dry today with passing clouds.

2) Cool again tonight.

An upper level low anchored over the northeast shifts farther
away today, taking the troughiness over the Mid Atlantic
offshore by tonight, replacing it by WNW flow. In the meantime,
we remain under the influence of the western edge of the trough
with trailing short wave energy overhead. This will support
passing clouds throughout the day. This morning an area of cold
air stratus over the mountains was starting to break up as dry
air continues to filter in from the NW. Partly to mostly cloudy
skies will give way to more sun by this afternoon, with highs
reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s over the mountains, and the
upper 70s to low 80s over the Piedmont.

Overnight lows tonight will drop into the upper 40s to upper
50s, with patchy fog over the mountain and river valleys.

Confidence in the near term forecast is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Warmer than normal temperatures starting Thursday.
3. Mostly a dry forecast.

High pressure will reign supreme through the period. There is a
low chance for some orographic showers to develop along the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge of the NW NC mountains late
Thursday afternoon. Any showers will fade around sunset.

Abundant sunshine and increasing heights aloft will bring near
normal temperatures to the area Wednesday, then warmer than
normal Thursday. Thursday`s highs will range in the mid to upper
80s west of the Blue Ridge to the lower 90s east. These
temperatures are 10F warmer than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 153 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Points:

1. Isolated showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, possible
Friday night.
2. Heat wave possible next week.

A cold front approaches the area Friday, then track over the
area into central North Carolina overnight into Saturday
morning. Showers are possible with the passing of the front,
while the strongest convection remains north of the area. High
pressure will move from the Ohio Valley Saturday, then wedge
south into the Carolinas into the day Sunday.

Warmer than normal temperatures likely ahead of the front
Friday. Friday`s high could peak in the mid 80s to lower 90s
in the mountains and mid 90s in the foothills and piedmont. Cool
dry high pressure will knockoff a few degrees from afternoon
highs over the weekend, but will remain warmer than normal.

An upper level ridge will build over the region Monday. This
ridge will likely stay overhead through most of next week. The
biggest concern will be the heat and humidity. Temperatures
should peak in the mid 80s to lower 90s west of the Blue Ridge
and upper 90s east. High humidity levels may have heat index
values into the triple digits for area east of the Blue Ridge.
Diurnal afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

MVFR to LIFR river valley fog as well as MVFR cold air stratus
is occurring this morning, and will lift to between 13-15Z this
morning. VFR scattered cloud cover is expected today with high
pressure building in. Light WNW winds will increase to 7 to 10
kts with occasional gusts up to 15 to 20 kts.

Tonight MVFR or lower patchy fog is possible in the river and
mountain valleys, especially at BLF and LWB.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through the upcoming week. Mainly dry conditions
expected through Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/SH