604
FXUS61 KRNK 230147
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
947 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure begins to lose its grip on the region tonight. A
front drops into the area Sunday into Monday with increasing
chances for storms each day. Above normal temperatures and
increasing humidity will lead to an increased risk of heat
related impacts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 945 PM EDT Saturday...

Again, little in the way of changes are expected for the latest
forecast update. Have trended the wind speed a little lower for
much of the area given current speeds for many locations are
already calm. Winds in the east may pick up slightly just prior
to daybreak, but not by a whole lot. The reduced speed will
allow for just a few more locations, especially the Foothill
region of North Carolina, to see a bit more patchy fog than
earlier advertised.

As of 650 PM EDT Saturday...

No major changes are being made to the ongoing forecast. At
best, isolated showers will still be possible across portions of
southeast West Virginia through 800 PM EDT or 900 PM EDT based
upon a couple of the convective allowing models. However,
chances are not high. Have made minor adjustments to the hourly
temperature, dew point, wind speed/gusts, and sky cover grids to
better reflect the latest conditions and expected trends trough
the late evening.

As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Isolated shower for the Greenbrier Valley this
afternoon/evening.

2. Scattered showers/storms expected tomorrow afternoon and
into the night as a cold front sinks south.

3. Severe weather not expected, but brief heavy rain likely.

High pressure continues to dominate the weather this afternoon,
but will slowly diminish in strength as troughing moves into
the Mid Atlantic tomorrow. Currently seeing some cumulus fields
across both the NC Piedmont and to the north across SE WV.
Capping and drier air just off the surface was our central
forecast area dry. May see a isolated showers/storm across the
Greenbrier Valley before activity ends this evening.

Weak short wave energy in the mid levels may bring a low chance
of rain to the mountains early tomorrow morning. Throughout the
day, we should see increasing cloud cover, and this will help
keep temperatures in the 80s for the mountains and in the low
90s for the Piedmont. Initially the Piedmont may see some
showers/storms tomorrow afternoon, but more widespread activity
is expected after 7 PM tomorrow night, beginning in the
mountains and spreading south, as a cold front enters the area.
Between timing, cloud cover, and unimpressive thermodynamics,
severe storms look unlikely, but heavy brief rain is likely with
PWATs above 1.5 inches, especially over the Piedmont.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

   - Best chance of thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday
   - High confidence of lower humidity on Tuesday

500 MB pattern amplifies with a long wave trough developing over
the northeast United States and then moving offshore by Tuesday
morning. At the surface a front comes through the Mid Atlantic
area Sunday night and Monday. The increased low level
convergence along this boundary will result in a higher
probability of thunderstorms.

Once the front goes through, the surface dew points lower into
the lower 50s to lower 60s. With the surface high centered
over Virginia and calm to light and variable wind Monday night,
lows will only be slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

   - Moderate confidence for showers and thunderstorms on
     Wednesday and Thursday
   - Heat returns for Friday and Saturday

Another short wave rotates through the Northeast trough on
Wednesday with chance of thunderstorms. The the upper pattern
flattens at the end of the week with the 500 mb ridge extended
back into the southeast United States. This will lead to warmer
temperatures Friday into the weekend. North American
Standardized Anomalies for 850 MB temperatures will be 1 to 2
deviations above normal. Subsidence from the 500 MB ridge and
warm mid level temperatures will keep a cap on all but isolated,
terrain-driven thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Saturday...

Primarily VFR conditions are expected across the region during
the 24-hour TAF period concluding 00Z Monday/8PM EDT Sunday. The
few exceptions will be a bit of river valley IFR/MVFR fog that
will occur late tonight into very early Sunday morning. Also,
late Sunday afternoon, some showers and storms may produce some
brief sub-VFR visibilities due to precipitation rates. Ceilings
are expected to remain VFR though. Winds will remain light from
mainly a southerly direction overnight into early Sunday. By the
afternoon, winds will begin to veer southwest to west with the
approach of a cold front and trend stronger.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Pattern favors VFR, but increasing chances for storms in brief
MVFR or lower conditions Sunday afternoon through Monday,
favoring the afternoon hours. Morning fog or ground fog may
occur along the rivers and where it happens to this evening.
Tuesday looks dry, with chance for showers and thunderstorms
increasing again Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

The following record high and record warm low temperatures may be in
jeopardy:

Sunday 06/23/2024 Record Warm Minimum: Roanoke - Forecast 72, Record
75 (set 1996) Blacksburg - Forecast 68, Record 70 (set 1896)

Record High: Roanoke - Forecast 95, Record 98 (set 1914) Lynchburg -
Forecast 94, Record 98 (set 1911)

Monday 06/24/2024 ROA record warm minimum, forecast 72, record 72
(set in 2010)

Wednesday 06/26/2024 LYH record high, forecast 98, record 98 (set in
1952)

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...DS/SH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/SH
CLIMATE...AMS