844
FXUS61 KRNK 161038
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
638 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week.
This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and a limited
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

   - Little change to temperatures and probability of precipitation

Expecting southeast to southwest wind around surface high pressure
over the northeast United States today and tonight. This will result
in light upslope flow along the east side of the southern
Appalachians. Satellite images were already showing clouds filling
in over western North Carolina. Bufkit forecast soundings were
showing a layer of low level moisture but little at mid and upper
levels.

Will keep a low probability of thunderstorms for this afternoon and
evening west of Bluefield to Wilkesboro line. This area is on the
fringe of the more unstable air mass over the Tennessee Valley.

No significant deviation from NBM guidance for highs today and lows
tonight. Surface dew points return to the 60s today, so tonight`s
minimum temperatures will be back above normal, by 5 to 10 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1. Mostly dry, with above-normal warmth through the period.

The weather pattern during the early half of the coming workweek
will be dominated by an area of upper level high pressure centered
over the lower Mid-Atlantic. The high pressure will be unusually
strong for this time of year, and will result in afternoon
temperatures that are well above-normal through the period. Factor
in increased humidity as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s,
abundant sunshine and light winds, temperatures will feel anywhere
from the upper 80s to the mid 90s across the Piedmont and the
mountain river valleys, though the higher terrain west of the Blue
Ridge will feel slightly cooler. These conditions will increase the
risk of heat-related illnesses, especially for those who are
sensitive to the heat or are spending extended periods of time
outdoors. Precautions against the heat should be taken, and include
having an abundance of cool non-alcoholic beverages available,
wearing light and loose fitting clothing, and having access to a
shaded and/or air conditioned area. Decent recovery will occur
each night as temperatures fall back into the 60s for lows.

Best chances for rainfall will occur Monday, mainly across the
mountains of southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. Shower
and thunderstorm activity will be mainly disorganized and driven by
daytime heating, and will therefore fizzle quickly toward sunset.
Coverage will be isolated to widely scattered. A few of the stronger
storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy
downpours, however the threat for any severe storms and/or flooding
will remain low.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper level high will be strong
enough to almost totally suppress the development of shower and
thunderstorm activity.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Above-normal warmth will begin to intensify toward the end
       of the week.

    2. Mainly dry conditions expected, with only isolated to
       widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Upper level high pressure will remain the dominant feature of our
weather pattern through the end of the week, and will actually begin
to intensify as next weekend approaches. This will cause afternoon
temperatures to reach into the mid and upper 90s across the Piedmont
for Friday and Saturday, while most locations across the mountains
can expect to reach into the upper 80s to the low 90s. Upper level
high pressure will also continue to limit all but isolated and
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity that develops with
afternoon heating and diminishes toward sunset.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Sunday...

Expecting southeast to southwest wind around surface high
pressure over the northeast United States today and tonight.
This will result in light upslope flow along the east side of
the southern Appalachians. Satellite images were already showing
clouds over western North Carolina into central Virginia.
Bufkit forecast soundings were showing a layer of low level
moisture but little at mid and upper levels. Ceilings will be in
the 3-7Kft range, with some MVFR ceilings before 18Z/2PM along
the Blue Ridge, including at KROA and possibly KBCB. As the
surface and low level wind turns to the southwest, the MVFR
clouds should lift back to VFR.

Will keep a low probability of thunderstorms for this afternoon and
evening west of Bluefield to Wilkesboro line. This area is on the
fringe of the more unstable air mass over the Tennessee Valley.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will cover the region this week. Aside for some
morning river fog in the mountain valleys, conditions are
expected to be primarily VFR. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be low.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/BMG