Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
197 FXUS61 KRNK 160722 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week. This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and a limited chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM EDT Sunday... Key message: - Little change to temperatures and probability of precipitation Expecting southeast to southwest wind around surface high pressure over the northeast United States today and tonight. This will result in light upslope flow along the east side of the southern Appalachians. Satellite images were already showing clouds filling in over western North Carolina. Bufkit forecast soundings were showing a layer of low level moisture but little at mid and upper levels. Will keep a low probability of thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening west of Bluefield to Wilkesboro line. This area is on the fringe of the more unstable air mass over the Tennessee Valley. No significant deviation from NBM guidance for highs today and lows tonight. Surface dew points return to the 60s today, so tonight`s minimum temperatures will be back above normal, by 5 to 10 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: 1. Mostly dry, with above-normal warmth through the period. The weather pattern during the early half of the coming workweek will be dominated by an area of upper level high pressure centered over the lower Mid-Atlantic. The high pressure will be unusually strong for this time of year, and will result in afternoon temperatures that are well above-normal through the period. Factor in increased humidity as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s, abundant sunshine and light winds, temperatures will feel anywhere from the upper 80s to the mid 90s across the Piedmont and the mountain river valleys, though the higher terrain west of the Blue Ridge will feel slightly cooler. These conditions will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, especially for those who are sensitive to the heat or are spending extended periods of time outdoors. Precautions against the heat should be taken, and include having an abundance of cool non-alcoholic beverages available, wearing light and loose fitting clothing, and having access to a shaded and/or air conditioned area. Decent recovery will occur each night as temperatures fall back into the 60s for lows. Best chances for rainfall will occur Monday, mainly across the mountains of southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be mainly disorganized and driven by daytime heating, and will therefore fizzle quickly toward sunset. Coverage will be isolated to widely scattered. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy downpours, however the threat for any severe storms and/or flooding will remain low. For Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper level high will be strong enough to almost totally suppress the development of shower and thunderstorm activity. Forecast confidence is high. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1. Above-normal warmth will begin to intensify toward the end of the week. 2. Mainly dry conditions expected, with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Upper level high pressure will remain the dominant feature of our weather pattern through the end of the week, and will actually begin to intensify as next weekend approaches. This will cause afternoon temperatures to reach into the mid and upper 90s across the Piedmont for Friday and Saturday, while most locations across the mountains can expect to reach into the upper 80s to the low 90s. Upper level high pressure will also continue to limit all but isolated and disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity that develops with afternoon heating and diminishes toward sunset. Forecast confidence is high. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Sunday... VFR expected through the TAF period. Expecting southeast to southwest wind around surface high pressure over the northeast United States today and tonight. This will result in light upslope flow along the east side of the southern Appalachians. Satellite images were already showing clouds filling in over western North Carolina. Bufkit forecast soundings were showing a layer of low level moisture but little at mid and upper levels. Ceilings will be in the 3-7Kft range. Any MVFR ceilings are expected to remain south of KBLF and KBCB. Will keep a low probability of thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening west of Bluefield to Wilkesboro line. This area is on the fringe of the more unstable air mass over the Tennessee Valley. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will cover the region this week. Aside for some morning river fog in the mountain valleys, conditions are expected to be primarily VFR. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be low. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...AMS/BMG