714
FXUS61 KRNK 081437
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1037 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm moist airmass will allow for daily shower and
thunderstorm chances. An approaching front from the northwest
stalls to the north today through the rest of the week, which
will allow for an increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot, with a Heat Advisory in effect for part of Southside VA
and the NC Piedmont.

2) Scattered showers and storms this afternoon.

Keeping the heat advisory in place, though may have enough
mixing to keep the heat index below 105, but since its close do
not plan on changing it now. Still stifling heat/humidity will
make for an unpleasant afternoon to work/play outdoors.

As for storms, we are currently fairly clear. Will see cumulus
develop by midday, with convective allowing models showing storm
development in the noon-2pm time frame along the mountains, then
shifting/spreading slowly east/northeast through the afternoon.
Not much to hang your hat on for coverage, and looks like a
pattern more scattered than numerous. Highest chances look to be
north over the Alleghanys into WV closer to better upper
support. This is also indicated in the latest RAP/FV3/ARW.

A few storms could become strong/severe, thanks to steep low-
level lapse rates and high-water content suggesting damaging
downbursts, especially with any organized clusters this
afternoon through around mid-evening.

Previous discussion...

Heat will be the main concern today, with abnormally high
temperatures over the area at the surface and aloft. With
temperatures in the low to upper 80s for the mountains, and the
low to mid 90s for the Piedmont, along with dew points in the
low to mid 70s, heat index values of over 100 are expected over
Southside VA and parts of the NC Piedmont. As such, a Heat
Advisory has been issued for this area beginning at 10 AM and
ending tonight.

We remain in southwest flow aloft today and tonight, with a
trough  from central Canada down to TX, and ridging over the
desert SW and the western Atlantic. There will be only weak
positive vorticity aloft moving through this afternoon, but with
temperatures in the 80s and 90s (about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal) and dew points in the 60s and 70s, resultant instability
will trigger showers and storms this afternoon and evening. A
pre-frontal/lee trough along the Blue Ridge will also encourage
storm development. The best instability will be over the far SE
NC/VA Piedmonts, with another smaller area over the WV/VA border
area. Poor lapse rates, shear, and kinematic support will mean
storms will be weak and garden variety. Still, if instability
reaches 2500-3000 J/kg over Southside VA and the NC Piedmont, we
could see some briefly severe storms with damaging winds,
although forecast soundings show skinny CAPE through the column.
Moderate to heavy rain will remain an issue, with storm motions
around 15 to 20 mph.

Dense fog will be possible in the usual mountain and river
valleys late tonight into Wednesday morning. Lows will be in
the 60s to low 70s.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
     As of 240 AM EDT TUESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Daily pulse convection

A classic summertime stalled front will take up residence just to
the north of the forecast area. This will leave us on the southern
warm and humid side of the boundary. As a series of short waves move
along the boundary through the week, it will work in tandem with
the already existent instability to force mainly pulse-type single
cellular convection. Modest shear may allow a few storms to become
more organized and sustained long enough to form a small multicell
system. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on
Wednesday, and given a similar atmospheric setup through the end of
the week, it is entirely within the realm of possibility to be alert
for severe thunderstorms each afternoon/evening in this forecast
period.

In addition, the daily nature of convection brings concerns of
localized flooding, as any particular area that receives heavy rain
multiple days in a row could experience flooding due to saturated
ground.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     As of 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and storms continue

2) Frontal passage early next week changes pattern

The situation described in the short term discussion will last
through most of the weekend, as no progressive system passes through
to cause a change in pattern or air mass. There are signals pointing
towards a cold front moving through the Midwest and into the OH
River Valley late Sunday or early next week. This would pick up the
stationary front and give us a change in airmass from the hot and
humid. Another round of showers would be associated with the front,
but then a period of quieter weather would likely follow. There is
considerable uncertainty in this front`s timing and impacts on the
local weather at this juncture however.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions with light WSW winds are expected through
the day, outside of early morning valley fog at LWB that may
lead to a few hours of MVFR to LIFR restrictions between 0900 to
1200 UTC this morning and again Wednesday morning. Additional
rounds of scattered to widespread showers. Outside of any brief
periods of restrictions in and around the aforementioned showers
and thunderstorms, predominantly VFR conditions are expected
for all terminals.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The forecast continues in a typical summertime weather pattern
with daily chance of showers/storms during the peak heating
hours each day through the end of the work week. Morning fog
will also be possible each day, especially at LWB and BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH