Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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713 FXUS61 KRNK 040520 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 120 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United States through Tuesday. Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue for the region Tuesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. The front will move across region on Thursday. A brief break in the wet weather pattern is expected behind the front on Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 810 PM EDT Monday... A weak boundary which had helped to sustain convection over parts of the Piedmont has drifted out of the area for the most part. Not much lightning with these cells but moderate to heavy rainfall, with some rates more than 1 inch/hour. This activity was waning fast with the loss of heating and expect any remaining showers to fall apart shortly. Stratus may expand from eastern VA overnight, but mainly expecting fog and fog adjacent low level stratus with plenty of low level moisture around- dew points over the Piedmont were briefly in the low 70s this evening. As of 200 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. An upper level ridge axis will stay over the area through Tuesday morning, then drift eastward in the afternoon. With a warm and humid airmass underneath this ridge, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, fading during the evening. Storms are not expected to become severe, but may produce heavy downpours. Areas that see rain will likely have fog developing in the morning. Areas of dense fog will be centered around lakes and rivers. Fog should lift by 10 AM. Near normal temperatures expected this afternoon. Temperatures will be 3F-5F warmer than normal on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. High probability for showers and thunderstorms mid-week. 2. Warm and humid through Thursday. Upper ridging over the mid-Atlantic will promote warm humid conditions through Thursday. It will become increasingly moist as southwest flow brings higher dewpoints into the region ahead of a cold front...PWATs increasing to near 1.80 Wednesday. A mid-latitude shortwave trough is expected to cross the Ohio Valley Wednesday with buoyancy and dynamic lift leading to numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. Surface cold front is expected to trail the mid-level trough leading to lingering showers Thursday before a bonafide cool-down begins with the passage of the surface front Thursday night. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to limit severe convection Wednesday, but ample low-level moisture and modest buoyancy may lead to pulse severe associated with wet microburst environment and potential for localized heavy rain. There is a marginal risk for rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance Wed/Wed-night per the supportive high PWAT airmass. Showers during this time frame should be very rain efficient. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal at night due to the higher dewpoints...lows in the 60s. Daytime temperatures should be muted by cloud cover, but still warm and humid with highs in the 80s and humidity minimums remaining above 50%. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. Cooler for the weekend. 2. Shower chances diminish An upper level trough is forecast to settle over Ontario and New England for the weekend. This will advect cooler air from Canada southward into the northern Mid-Atlantic promoting cooler nights and near seasonal temperatures during the day. Shower chances decrease but are not void entirely due to the proximity of the upper trough and cyclonic flow. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday... NOTE: Observations not being transmitted for KLWB, therefore AMD NOT SKED for their taf. Fog is expected to develop this morning, but different models show different levels of fog/visibility. Leaning toward climatology as we should see typical fog at LWB/BCB, but other sites could have MVFR or lower. Confidence higher at LWB/BCB/LYH. Fog should lift by 12-14Z Tuesday. Widely scattered showers/storms are possible again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Due to the slow movement, coverage, and timing of storms, forecast confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. Overall should be VFR with a light southeast wind. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Morning fog is possible in mountain valleys Wednesday. Greater likelihood of flight restrictions/MVFR (or lower) on Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Friday is expected to be drier and a better probability of VFR conditions behind the front. A few showers possible Sat in the mountains but mainly VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS/SH SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...SH/WP