372
FXUS63 KSGF 252331
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
631 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area until 8 PM
  today. Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s with Heat
  Index values between 100 to 105.

- Daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s through
  this week, with Heat Index values ranging in the 90s and into
  the 100s.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances tonight into Wednesday, with
  highest chances (50 to 80%) after midnight. Slight risk for
  severe weather for the majority of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

We have 3,000-4,500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area this
afternoon as weak shortwave energy passes through, which will
result in isolated pop-up showers and storms into this evening.
Shear is very weak, so storms will be pulsey and disorganized.
No severe weather is expected with this convection.

Heat is obviously an issue this afternoon with temperatures in
the mid 90s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s as of 2pm,
resulting in heat index values

Additional, potentially severe, convection is then likely
tonight. Storms are expected to develop across western Iowa,
then grow upscale and move southward through the night.
Additional storms may develop ahead of the complex. The main
concern is with the MCS activity, where a damaging wind threat
of 60-70mph is the primary concern. This may linger in the
morning hours on Wednesday, but models vary by a few hours on
timing, placement, and strength, which limits confidence in
specific details.

Highs on Wednesday should be cooler with highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s currently expected, but that will be highly dependent on
convective evolution. Could be cooler or warmer if precip/cloud
stick around longer or dissipate more quickly.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Thursday will be another "cooler" day with highs in the mid 80s
to low 90s, but heat builds back in on Friday. Friday highs are
forecast to range from the low to upper 90s with max heat index
values from the upper 90s to around 105.

We see a return of area-wide PoPs Saturday into Saturday night
as a cold front may move through. There severe weather potential
is not clear right now, but does not appear to be too great.
Look for highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s Saturday, which may
change if the timing of the front and convection changes. Sunday
should be cooler with highs in the 80s and 20-40% chances for
precip.

The repetitive cycle of jumping right back to heat continues
early next week with highs in the 90s for Monday and Tuesday.
Could see a need for more heat advisories if this verifies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected this evening through the overnight
hours with southerly winds. There is a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms this evening however higher chances still look to
move in after 09z however given the uncertainty have kept prob30
groups in for now. As confidence in timing increases we will
then include tempo groups. Low level wind shear is possible at
SGF and JLN. Winds then turn more northwesterly for Wednesday.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Burchfield