Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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796 FXUS63 KSGF 171849 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 149 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry and becoming unseasonably warm temperatures through the rest of the work week with the hottest day on Friday. - Some low end rain chances late in the week(10-20%)...with better chances over the weekend(20-40%). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show two main areas of low pressure over the CONUS. The first is located over the Carolinas and Georgia and the 2nd over the Rockies. In between we had weak ridging which was over the forecast area. The morning fog and stratus had dissipated by mid to late moring, however an extensive cumulus field filled in rather quickly and now covers most of the CWA. This was limiting some temperature rise, but as of mid day, we still had readings from the mid 70s at BBG which had the morning fog to the mid 80s in parts of central MO. For tonight, we should lose the cumulus field by late in the day/early evening with generally clear skies. May see some fog redevelop along the rivers and lakes once again, but visibilities are not expected to be as bad as early this morning. Lows tonight should dip into the mid to upper 50s out east to the mid 60s in the west. Wednesday - The upper low over the Carolinas and Georgia should begin to weaken and open up while the upper low over the Rockies continues to lift northeast into the northern plains. Precipitation should stay to our north and west with any activity that develops tonight and on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday should reach the mid to upper 80s and possibly near 90 in parts of southwest MO. Wednesday Night - The upper low in the northern plains will continue to lift northeast with an upper ridge axis continuing to amplify over the area. A low level jet does develop over the plains just to our west along with some nighttime elevated instability will need to monitor for some convection potentially sneaking into our western CWA towards Thursday morning. Lows are expected to range from the mid and upper 50s in the east to the mid and upper 60s in the west. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 For Thursday and Friday, we maintain the upper ridge from Mexico through the mid Mississippi valley, while 850mb temperatures in the low to mid 20s(C) are advected into the region. For context, this would fall into the 90 percentile to daily max values for 850mb climatology. This also looks fairly probable as we are showing a fairly tight clustering of this data within the LREF grand ensemble data. Local high temperature climate study which correlates 850mb temperatures is showing some mid to upper 90s potential given the forecast 850mb temperatures in the low to mid 20s(C). This is slightly warmer than what we are currently going and we`ll need to monitor this trend as we will be approaching record temperatures(See climate section). By Friday, we are currently going with upper 80s in the east to mid 90s in the west. A frontal boundary may help to develop some convection to our north and west that may sneak into our western and northern CWA on Thursday and Friday, however, most of our area will remain dry through the end of the week. Saturday through Monday: An upper low will move out of California late in the week and into the Rockies on Saturday and the plains on Sunday. Moisture will increase over our area ahead of this feature and our precipitation chances will increase over more of our forecast area (still only 20-40% at this time). Temperatures should cool down back into the 80s on Sunday and the 70s by Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 For the 18z TAFS, morning fog has dissipated and a large cumulus field has developed over much of the CWA. May go in and out of sct-bkn conditions around 3500 feet this afternoon, but should diminish late in the day. May get some more fog tonight near BBG, but have gone with MVFR conditions to start from 08-14z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Record High Temperatures (Joplin): September 19: 98 (1954) Forecast: 95 September 20: 99 (1954) Forecast: 96 Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Springfield): September 20: 74 (2018)Forecast: 69 September 21: 73 (1931) Forecast: 70 September 22: 70 (2017)Forecast: 67 Record Lowest Precipitation for Month of September: Springfield: 0.05" (1928) September 2024 Thusfar: 0.04" Joplin: 0.2" (2013) September 2024 Thusfar: 0.00" Vichy/Rolla: 0.19" (2017) September 2024 Thusfar: 0.03" && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Camden