Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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160
FXUS63 KSGF 172012
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
312 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Heat and humidity will continue through today, then return
   late this week.

-  15-30% chances for isolated to scattered showers and
   thunderstorms east of Highway 65 today and Tuesday.

-  Breezy conditions Tuesday with southerly wind gusts up to
   25-30 mph, especially west of Highway 65.

-  Signal for above normal temperatures to continue through the
   rest of June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Current mesoanalysis shows weak upper-level flow over our
region as a longwave trough sits over the NW CONUS. Meanwhile,
an upper-level high sits off the Carolina coast. Hot and humid
conditions today will continue today, with high temperatures in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Scattered cumulus clouds exist over
most of the CWA north of an area of convection over SE Missouri
and NE Arkansas, which is moving to the NNE. A few pop-up
showers have begun in Benton and St. Clair counties.

Heat indices today will reach from 95-100 F. Be sure to take proper
heat protection measures if working outside, such as taking
frequent breaks, and staying cool and hydrated.

Pop-up thundershowers like those in St. Clair and Benton counties
are possible this afternoon into the evening (15-30% chances),
mostly in the area to the east of Highway 65. Precipitable water
values in the area are high (1.5"-2"), so the main hazards from
any of these storms will be locally heavy rainfall and
lightning.

Going from tonight into Tuesday, lows will reach the lower 70s and
upper 60s. Temperatures increase again tomorrow into the
mid-80s. As is common for this time of year, there is a chance
of pop-up thundershowers (15-40% chances), mostly east of
Highway 65, with locally heavy rain and thunder again as the
main hazards. Breezy conditions are also expected, with
southerly winds of 10-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph. Warm and
humid conditions will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with lows again the upper 60s and lower 70s, and highs on
Wednesday in the mid to upper-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Throughout the week, hot conditions are expected to continue.
From Thursday through Monday, highs will be in the lower 90s and
lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dewpoints are expected to
decrease slightly into the mid-60s, which will lower rain
chances on Thursday and Friday. Some models show a frontal
passage sometime this weekend, which would increase
precipitation chances, but nothing definitive yet.

The Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 day temperature outlook
continues to show a 50-60% for above average temperatures for June
25th-July 1st.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF
period. Some scattered pop-up thunderstorms are possible
(15-30% chances) from 19-01z, although confidence is too low to
include in the TAF at this time, and any development is
expected to stay east of the TAF sites. Some scattered cumulus
clouds are currently moving through southwestern Missouri, and
should clear by 01z. Winds are southerly, blowing at 10-15
knots, with gusts of 20-25 knots possible at SGF and JLN. As the
nocturnal low-level jet strengthens overnight, low-level wind
shear at JLN may reach 40-45 knots between 04-08z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kenny
LONG TERM...Kenny
AVIATION...Kenny