Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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230 FXUS63 KSGF 190540 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1240 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry and becoming unseasonably warm through the rest of the work week with the hottest day on Friday. - Some low-end rain chances late in the week (10-30%)...with better chances over the weekend (20-55%)...and additional chances through the middle of next week (10-30%). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show 3 distinct areas of low pressure. 1) off the coast of California, 2) over eastern Montana and 3) over the Carolinas. The two western upper lows were within a more broad trough that extended into the upper Mississippi valley. East of the trough, upper ridging was developing from south Texas into the mid Mississippi valley. A large cumulus field has developed over the area this afternoon across the CWA. Temperatures have risen into the mid 80s with dew points in the low to mid 60s. For tonight, the cumulus field should begin to diminish late in the afternoon and early this evening. Any convection is expected to remain to our west. There will again be a large range in overnight lows with coolest readings in the eastern Ozarks with some upper 50s to low 60s...and mid to upper 60s in the west. Thursday, the ridge axis will begin to amplify from Mexico into the mid Mississippi valley. Low level warm advection will also increase, especially over the west where 850mb temperatures rise into the low 20s(C). An instability axis will set up mainly to the west of the area, however some of the CAMS are developing convection over the western half of the CWA during the afternoon. Will generally have low pops(10-25%) for mainly the afternoon hours. Highs should range from the upper 80s in the east to the mid 90s in the west. Thursday night, a southwesterly low level jet will set up over the western CWA. With high moisture content and elevated instability, we`re going to maintain some low pops(10-25%) over the area. It will be very mild with lows from the mid 60s in the east to the low 70s in the west. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The hottest day looks to be on Friday where 850mb temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s(C) over the west. Our local climate study shows mid to upper 90s for those kind of 850mb temperatures and in fact we do have some mid to upper 90s temperatures in the west and upper 80s to low 90s in the east. Heat index values in the upper 90s to around 103 will also be possible in the west. Some lingering convection will mainly be possible in the eastern Ozarks during the morning with little or no precipitation during the afternoon. Our highest chance of rain(20-55%) looks to be over the weekend as the current low off the California coast shifts east into the plains and Mississippi valley. As we head further into the extended, there is a large variability within the ensemble cluster analysis within many of the overall fields which is lending to an overall low confidence forecast. Because of timing differences with these features we have model averaged pops that continue through the entire extended period but are generally on the low side(30% or less), which also has an affect on temperatures and we are seeing a decent spread within the 25th-75th percentile range heading through the early to mid part of next week. There should be a gradual cooling trend through the week however and drift to more normal readings. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period with mostly clear skies, save for FEW high clouds and a 6 kft cumulus field between 18-02Z. S`ly winds will pick up after 15Z to 8-12 kts, with JLN gusting to 20 kts at times. There is a 30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms to impact JLN after 02Z. Confidence is currently medium-high on isolated shower and thunderstorm development, but low on timing and location. Any thunderstorm that is in the vicinity of the TAF site could produce wind gusts up to 40-50 kts and small hail. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Record High Temperatures (Joplin): September 19: 98 (1954) Forecast: 94 September 20: 99 (1954) Forecast: 97 Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Springfield): September 20: 74 (2018) Forecast: 70 September 21: 73 (1931) Forecast: 70 September 22: 70 (2017) Forecast: 69 Record Lowest Precipitation for Month of September: Springfield: 0.05" (1928) September 2024 Thusfar: 0.04" Joplin: 0.2" (2013) September 2024 Thusfar: 0.00" && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Price CLIMATE...Camden