Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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995 FXUS63 KSGF 170551 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1251 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and becoming unseasonably warm through the rest of the work week; hottest day Friday with highs near and above 90. - Next rain chance this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Missouri is currently situated at the western periphery of a Rex block over the east coast, with high pressure over the great lakes and a low over North Carolina associated with potential tropical cyclone Eight. There is a weak low over the AR/LA border, advecting some upper level vorticity into our area this afternoon. Tropical moisture is being slung into the area between the two lows, and we have experienced some light rain showers all through the overnight into this afternoon. As the low to the south lifts out, showers will come to an end across southern Missouri later this afternoon. Many are experiencing thick cloud cover today, keeping temperatures largely in the 70s with a few 80s out west where the sun is has been shining a bit more. Clouds will diminish through the evening as the lift for the showers ends, but we are looking at some fog and low- level stratus development in the early morning hours, primarily affecting the south and east. The HREF is showing widespread probabilities of 60-70% for visibilities less than 5 miles around sunrise with more localized areas having an 80%+ for less than 3 miles. Fog is finicky and confidence is difficult to pin down, so stay tuned for the evening and overnight forecasts that will have a better handle on the potential as we get into the evening hours. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for the Tuesday morning commute. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s in valleys out east and up into the low 60s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 As we head into Tuesday, upper level ridging begins to build in from the west. This will warm us up into the mid to high 80s with some in the west reaching 90. It will be mostly sunny with a few passing clouds being pushed through by the dissipating tropical system to the east. The ridge will build over us for the next few days while two lows in the northwest do some really fun Fujiwara-ing. This ridge will keep us dry through the rest of the week and also bring some unseasonably warm temperatures, with the ECMWF EFI showing forecast highs for Friday and Saturday in the 80th percentile of the M-climate. Friday will be the warmest, with a forecast high of 94 in Joplin and 86 in Rolla. (See Climate section below.) The spinning low pressure systems in the west will work together to impact the Ozarks Saturday. Stay up to date with future forecasts for expected accumulations and impacts as these systems move closer. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Branson (BBG) and the southern Missouri Ozarks/northern Arkansas Ozarks at large quickly devolved into VLIFR fog conditions this evening. All the classic radiational fog ingredients are in place, and with a dense fog onset of 04Z, fog in the higher terrain can be expected to remain dense until mid-morning. 15Z is current estimate of full dissipation based on when the temperature warms above the crossover temperature (68), but it is entirely possible it takes longer to dissipate. Opted for a TEMPO to cover increasing visibilities from VLIFR to IFR prior to return to VFR in the late morning/early afternoon. Areas near lakes and within river valleys (especially the Gasconade river basin) will see fog and reduced visibilities as well. The rest of the Missouri Ozarks can expect some light fog, but areas dealing with terrain will experience the largest visibility decreases. This does not include the SGF or JLN terminals, which is why both terminals remain VFR for the TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight, strengthening to 5-10 kts from the southeast during the day Tuesday. Clear skies give way to clouds early Tuesday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Record High Temperatures (Joplin): September 19: 98/1954 Forecast: 93 September 20: 99/1954 Forecast: 94 Record High Minimum Temperatures (Springfield): September 21: 73/1931 Forecast: 73 September 22: 70/2017 Forecast: 70 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden