979
FXUS63 KSGF 210700
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
200 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend ahead through the weekend with highs in the 90s.
  Humidity on the increase with heat index values around 100 to
  105 by late weekend into early next week.

- Weak frontal passage featuring scattered shower and
  thunderstorm chances (20 to 50%) Saturday night into Sunday
  morning.

- Additional scattered thunderstorm chances (20 to 50%) on
  Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Today-Tonight: Height rises across the area today as high
pressure settles further into the region. This will keep the
area dry once again today, with highs pushing into the upper 80s
to around 90. Meanwhile, dewpoints will remain in the middle
60s, keeping heat index values in the lower to middle 90s.
Expect a mix of sun and clouds through much of today. For
tonight, lows fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Saturday-Sunday: Heading into the weekend, temperatures will
continue to be on an upward trend as 850mb temperatures reach to
20 to 22C, supporting surface high temperatures in the lower to
middle 90s. Furthermore, dewpoints climb into the lower 70s by
Sunday. This supports heat index values into the upper 90s to
around 103 on Sunday afternoon. In general, much of the weekend
remains dry across the area outside of scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances (20 to 50%) Saturday night into Sunday
morning. This is associated with a quick moving shortwave and
associated weak frontal passage. The highest chances remain
focused across portions of central Missouri. No severe weather
or widespread flooding are in the forecast, though lightning and
heavy downpours can be expected. Localized heavy rainfall and
efficient rates will be will be characterized by PWATs around
1.5 to 2.0 inches.

Monday-Thursday: By early next week, hot temperatures and
humidity continue to build across the area. Experimental NWS
HeatRisk highlights widespread Major (level 3 of 4) heat impacts
across the area Sunday through Tuesday. Additionally, there is
even pockets of Extreme (level 4 of 4) on Monday and Tuesday.
This is the result of high temperatures in the middle to upper
90s with widespread heat index values ranging from 100 to 105.
Furthermore, overnight minimal overnight relief is expected with
lows in the 70s and persistent humidity. Confidence continues
to increase on the potential for heat headlines into early next
week. Vulnerable populations should take proper precautions
ahead of the Summer`s first heatwave.

Rain chances remain suppressed north and west of the ridge
through Monday and part of Tuesday before a pattern change
begins to shape across the Middle Mississippi Valley. The ridge
shifts further west of the area, supporting northwest flow over
the central CONUS into mid- week. Shower and thunderstorm
chances (30 to 50%) increase Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Scattered thunderstorms will be pulse-like in nature, featuring
heavy downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds. The extent of
coverage remains uncertain at this time, with some locations
potentially remaining dry. With the pattern change, the hot
temperatures and humidity back off across the area. This will
keep highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Rain chances back off through the later part of the forecast
period into next weekend as ensemble guidance hint at return of
an upper-level ridge over the area. The CPC 8 to 14 Day Outlook
support this trend with above normal temperatures likely (60 to
70% chance) through the end of June into early July.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions likely to prevail through the TAF period. Expect
scattered to broken mid and high level clouds to persist across
the area through much of TAF period. Winds light at 5 to 10
knots out of the southeast through Friday morning, becoming more
southerly Friday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 21:
KVIH: 96/1952

June 22:
KSGF: 96/2016
KJLN: 98/2016

June 23:
KJLN: 98/2009

June 24:
KSGF: 99/1988
KJLN: 100/1954
KVIH: 99/1901
KUNO: 100/1952

June 25:
KSGF: 99/2012
KJLN: 101/2012
KVIH: 100/9999


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23:
KSGF: 77/2015

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Kenny