847
FXUS63 KSGF 191020
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
520 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Low chance (15 to 20%) for isolated showers and
   thunderstorms this afternoon.

-  Signal for above normal temperatures to continue through the
   rest of June.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances (15 to 35%) will be possible
  across portions of the area at times late this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located across the
eastern U.S as an upper level trough is located over the
eastern U.S. early this morning. The upper ridge will start to
move back to the east late today into the end of the week.
Convection has developed ahead of the trough across central KS
early this morning. This activity will not make a lot of eastern
movement today as the upper level trough and better lift
remains west of the area today. Therefore, coverage in this
activity will decrease as it moves east. Some weak upper level
energy will move north across the area this afternoon/evening
west of the upper level high. Instability will be on the weaker
side today and a drier air mass will be in place in the mid to
upper levels of the atmosphere. Some isolated showers and a few
storms will be possible this afternoon and evening, but with the
drier air and the amount of instability in place, coverage will
be limited, and many locations will not be affected. Deep layer
shear will also be on the weaker side today, so no severe
storms are expected across the area today.

Highs will warm into the upper 80s to around 90 this afternoon
with heat index values in the lower to middle 90s. Lows tonight
into Thursday morning will be in the middle 60s to around the
70 degree mark.

The upper level ridge will build back to the west into the area
on Thursday. Drier air and weak instability will be in place
with mainly dry conditions expected Thursday. Highs will again
warm into the upper 80s to around 90 with heat index values in
the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The upper level ridge will be over the region Friday into the
weekend. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 90s, with
heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100.

An upper level trough will flatten the ridge Saturday night
into Sunday and could bring some scattered showers and storms
to the area (10 to 30% chances). There are are still questions
on how far south this activity can make it Saturday night into
Sunday as the better upper level support remains north of the
area. Not all locations will be affected by this activity, with
chances decreasing from north to south.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the Plains
early next week. This could level the area in an upper level
northwest flow pattern and could allow some scattered shower
and storm chances at times early next week. A warm air mass will
also remain in place with highs in 90s and heat index values
around 100 degrees early next week. Lows will only cool into
the low to mid 70s this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Some patchy fog and low clouds have developed over portions of
the eastern Ozarks early this morning. Any fog will dissipate
shortly after sunrise this morning. Locations that experience
the lower ceilings early this morning will also will ceilings
improve after sunrise this morning. These low flight conditions
will occur mainly east of the TAF sites early this morning.

A few isolated showers and storms will be possible this
afternoon but coverage will be limited and not all locations
will be affected. Have not including any mention of convection
in the TAFs for this afternoon due to low confidence is any
activity affecting a TAF site due to limited coverage. Winds
will be out of the south to southeast through the TAF period
generally less than 10kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Record High Temperatures:

June 21:
KVIH: 96/1952

June 22:
KSGF: 96/2016
KJLN: 98/2016
KVIH: 98/1901

June 23:
KJLN: 98/2009


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23:
KSGF: 77/2015

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Wise