Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
424 FXUS63 KSGF 101103 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 603 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Residual flooding continues after some areas received as much as 5 to 8 inches of rain over the past 2 days. - Near-normal temperatures through Tuesday, with highs between upper 70s to low 80s. - Warmer temperatures return later in the week into next weekend, with temps potentially reaching 90 on Thursday with the heat expected to persist through the weekend, with temps in the 90s and heat indices between 90 and 100. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: As a result of all of the recent rainfall, many rivers (especially within the Osage Basin) remain in River Flood Warnings and an Areal Flood Warning in effect for all but the corner of southwest Missouri through 7am this morning. After the upper-level trough that accompanied the active weather of the last few days progressed eastward out of the greater Ozarks region, the dissipation the pressure gradient at the surface is resulting in winds at the surface being all but nonexistent. Those light winds paired with the abundant moisture that we`ve been left with means conditions are ripe for fog development. Witching hour night fog and RGB satellite products clearly paint a picture of finger- shaped areas of locally dense fog in river valleys, with less dense fog throughout much of southern Missouri. Surface METAR and personal weather stations indicate widespread humidity values of 90% or greater with winds below 3mph (if any are recorded at all), so fog development is expected to continue, becoming more widespread and dense into the early morning hours. Held off on a Dense Fog Advisory because confidence isn`t high in widespread visibilities below 1/4 mile, though areas along/near river valleys will see significantly lowered visibilities and later dissipation times that could result in AM commute travel impacts. Monday and Tuesday: An upper-level ridge will continue to build over the central CONUS, and the Ozarks will be set up under an upper-level northwest flow regime, with light northerly winds at the surface bringing cooler air with it. This northwest flow will keep temperatures seasonal, within the upper 70s to low 80s range. Dry air on the backside of the weekend system will keep cloud cover low as well. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The next week will be rather synoptically-driven. An upper-level low developing off the Rockies will push over the southern Plains on Tuesday and boost a building low-level high over the Gulf. Meanwhile in western Canada, a low aloft will begin developing and moving east. On Wednesday, the southern Plains upper-level low will be absorbed by the increasing zonal flow to its north and a ridge will start strengthening over the Rockies behind it, while the Canadian upper-level low/associated through lifts northeast. In the low-levels, the high over the Gulf will continue building, strengthening, and expanding. This will transition the Ozarks region into a southwest flow regime. Enter, scenario 1: favorable double high pattern. As the Canadian trough (now in eastern Canada) from early in the week lifts, its positively-tilted remnants will funnel low-level air to the southwest into the Rockies. From there, the upper-level western Canadian high will build eastward through the rest of the week, and the low-level winds that were pushed into the Rockies will begin to build a secondary high over the northern Plains while the Gulf ridge continues to dominate the southern Plains. By Friday, the two low-level highs (which dominate temperature advection) will merge, strengthening a low-level jet up the Rockies into a 40-50kt warm-air-pumping machine from the Mexican Plateau through the central Plains into Canada. Temperatures will surge well above normal into the 90s for the first time this summer, with heat indices near 100. Scenario 2: the two systems don`t interact favorably and we end up under a regular old Gulf high, without the boost to the low-level jet from the secondary high in the northern Plains. We end up with temperatures above normal, but not by more than a few degrees. End result: ensembles split the difference, so I also split the difference in the grids. Regardless, a late week warmup is coming. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Clear skies and light winds to begin the work week. The only thing preventing one-liners at SGF and JLN is a slight wind increase from below 5kts to 5-10kts in the afternoon, even though magnitude/direction changes won`t result in any impacts. Elsewhere across the Ozarks, areas in and around river valleys will see fog (some dense) this morning, but this fog is not expected to be widespread nor affect any TAF sites. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Record High Temperatures: June 14: KVIH: 95/1952 June 16: KJLN: 95/2016 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 15: KSGF: 74/2022 June 16: KSGF: 75/2022 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden