856
FXUS63 KSGF 142305
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
605 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Low-end thunderstorm chances today and Saturday (15-30%).

-  Heat and humidity will continue through much of next week.

-  Daily chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday
   and onward (15-30%) thanks to the hot and humid air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper air analysis continue to show main upper jet and storm
track positioned over the northern quarter of the CONUS with a
trough over the Great Lakes region, and upper ridge building
into the plains and mid Mississippi valley and an upper level
shortwave undercutting the ridge over the four corners region. A
surface front has pushed south into far southern Missouri into
southeast Kansas. Temperatures ahead of the front were in the
low 90s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s and surface
based CAPES in the 3500-4500 j/kg range. A cumulus field has
developed in this area over the past couple of hours.

Rest of the afternoon and tonight: Some of the convective
allowing models(CAMS) are developing some isolated / widely
scattered thunderstorms across mainly our southwest CWA this
afternoon and evening. This would mainly be along/ahead of the
cold front which only covers a handful of counties in our
southwest CWA. Most areas will remain dry. This area will also
have heat index values this afternoon and early evening in the
upper 90s to around 103.

Additional convection is expected to develop in the central and
high plains ahead of that upper shortwave currently in the 4
corners region, eventually forming a thunderstorm complex and
shifting east. This activity may approach our northwest CWA
towards morning. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s in the east
to the low 70s in the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Saturday: Most of the activity with the thunderstorm complex
will lift northeast across northern Missouri, but the southern
edge of this activity may affect our central MO counties.
Outflow from this complex may aid in developing scattered
afternoon and evening convection over the area (15-25%). Storms
that develop are not expected to become severe. Highs should
climb back into the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values
from the mid 90s to around 103.

Sunday through Thursday: Upper level ridge axis will be to our
east with the main storm track expected to our northwest along
with a frontal boundary well to the north and west of the area.
Generally dry with warm and humid conditions are expected to
continue over the area. We can`t rule out some isolated
convection in the afternoon/evening on a daily basis due to
instability over the area. Highs will generally be in the upper
80s to mid 90s each day with heat index values from the low 90s
to around 100.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions should persist through the entire TAF period,
with scattered cumulus clouds seen on satellite imagery. There
is a low chance (15-20%) for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm, however confidence is too low to include in the
TAFs. Any storm that does develop will be shortlived. Otherwise,
surface winds between 5-10 knots will shift to a south-
southeasterly direction by Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Melto