Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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732 FXUS63 KSGF 210540 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot again for most of the Ozarks Saturday. Heat Index values will reach the 95 to 102F range mainly along and west of Highway 65. - 10-30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms through this evening mainly along and south of I-44. If storms develop, some may produce wind gusts up to 40-60 mph. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend (30-80% chance). Precipitation amounts will be highly variable across the region, but generally expect the highest amounts to be north of I-44. - A cold front will bring cooler temperatures next week with highs in the 70s and limited rain chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A cold front will be making slow progress to the south towards the Ozarks through tonight before stalling. In advance of the front, temperatures will soar into the middle to upper 90s for ares west of Highway 65 and into the lower to middle 90s to the east. With Td`s in the upper 60s to around 70, the heat index will make it feel like 95 to 105*F. This unseasonably warm airmass will bring the potential of near record his for some locations this afternoon and record high overnight low temperatures for some tonight. With the moisture in place across the region and plenty of heat induced instability, from 2500-4500 j/kg across the Ozarks, scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon south of the front with the best potential closer in proximity to the Arkansas State line. Organization of the convection is expected to be limited, but with the amounts of stability in place, a few storms may become strong enough to produce downburst winds from 40-60mph especially with inverted-V low- level profiles via models, if they can overcome a rather dry layer aloft over the region note on the 12z SGF sounding. With the setting sun the region will see a lull in the rain chances. However, lingering instability and an approaching trough, ejecting from the desert southwest, will push the lingering front north as a warm front. A storm complex is than expected to develop, taking advantage of strong warm air and moisture advection coincident with strong positive vorticity advection. This will allow for more widespread rain and storms to the region spread over the region likely after midnight tonight. The best potential remains along and north of I-44 however based on the expected area of development and track of the system. Severe weather is not expected with this round. Widespread and more prolonged rain is more likely. Temperatures will lingering in the upper 60s (east) to middle 70s (west) providing little relief overnight. See Climate Section below for potential High Minimum overnight temperatures impacts. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Multiple rounds of showers and storms this weekend (30-80%): Multiple rounds of rain and storms are expected through the day Saturday and into Sunday as the upper level system lifts out of the southwest into the central plains. The expanse of rainfall over the weekend may be impacted by lingering outflow from tonight`s convection. Despite this caveat, multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms remain expected Saturday through Monday night as a widespread area of large- scale forcing moves across the plains and the Ozarks through the period. Severe weather is not expected Saturday and Saturday night while rain chances are from 30 to 70%. Heading into Sunday and Sunday night, the upper short wave will make its way to the east across the plains providing ample lift and forcing for showers and storms. The best potential (50-80%) will be across the northern portions of the Ozarks, I-44 and north, however areas south will have a good chance (30-50%) of seeing rain as well. The upper level system will drag a cold front through the Ozarks which will aid in lift. There will be at least the potential for some strong to severe storms with this activity with mainly a damaging wind threat. The limiting factor will be instability as cloudy skies will limit heating. Areas north of I-44 have the greatest chance of receiving at least an inch of rain over the length of the weekend (50-70%). A limiting factor to any flood potential will be the ongoing dry conditions and potential rainfall rates. If storms can produce rain rates in excess of an inch per hour (limited chance) of storms train over the same locations through the day, some localized flooding may be possible. The flooding threat will continue to be monitored and evaluated in the coming days. The pattern looks as though it will shift, bringing more fall like weather to the region for Tuesday through the end of next week. Additional (low confidence) rain chances exist from Tuesday night into Wednesday, though synoptic models have vastly differing solutions on the evolution of the weather patterns for the coming period. For the most part, conditions next week look cooler and mostly dry with seasonably warm highs in the upper 60 to 70s through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A weakening thunderstorm complex is currently entering west Missouri. An associated outflow boundary will impact SGF and JLN, shifting S`ly winds to N`ly for the 06-09Z timeframe. Decaying thunderstorms will be in the vicinity, with a 40% chance for associated precipitation to impact JLN between 08-10Z. At the moment, rain is expected to stay away from SGF, but lightning could be in the vicinity. Later in the period, redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms is expected across southwest Missouri, with the threat lingering most of the period. Confidence is low on the best location and timing of thunderstorms, but chances are at least a few cells will be in the vicinity of the TAF sites at times through 02Z. Otherwise, BKN to OVC mid-level clouds will be prevalent today, with background winds at 5-10 kts out of the south, unless affected by thunderstorm outflow. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2024 Record High Temperatures (Joplin): September 21: 99 (2022) Forecast: 98 Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Springfield): September 21: 73 (1931) Forecast: 72 September 22: 70 (2017) Forecast: 70 Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Joplin): September 21: 76 (1980) Forecast: 75 Record Lowest Precipitation for Month of September: Springfield: 0.05" (1928) September 2024 Thusfar: 0.04" Joplin: 0.2" (2013) September 2024 Thusfar: T" && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Price CLIMATE...Price