996
FXUS66 KSGX 141958
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1258 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above average temperatures are expected for inland areas through
Saturday. Several degrees of cooling is expected for Sunday and
Monday, before another round of more gradual warming for Tuesday
through Friday. Night and morning low clouds will continue along the
coast, spreading into portions of the valleys at times. There will
be stronger and gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and
deserts for this weekend during the late afternoon through late
evening each day. Daytime relative humidity will fall to 10 to 15
percent in the same areas impacted by wind, creating elevated fire
weather conditions.
&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Building high pressure aloft will keep low cloud and fog coverage
will more confined to the coast, locally reaching into portions of
the far western valleys tonight into Saturday morning. Areas of fog
are possible tonight into early Saturday morning, especially near
mesas and other higher coastal terrain. The marine layer is will
begin to deepen again Sunday and Monday, with higher chances of
reaching further into the valleys during that time.

An additional few degrees of warming is expected for inland areas
tomorrow, with 3 to 7 degrees of warming for coastal areas. High
temperatures for the hottest locations in the lower deserts will be
around 115 degrees and in the Inland Empire around 100 degrees.
Areas of moderate to locally major heat risk are expected for the
low deserts into Saturday with moderate heat risk in the Inland
Empire Saturday. With these hot conditions it`s recommended to avoid
strenuous outdoor activities if you can, especially between the
hours of 10 am and 5 pm, and stay hydrated.

Sunday will be noticeably cooler across the area as a broad
troughing pattern holds over the Western United States. Widespread
cooler conditions will maintain into Monday. In addition to cooler
conditions and increased low cloud coverage, the increase in onshore
flow will generate gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains
and deserts each late afternoon through late evening for the weekend
with gusts to 25 to 35 mph with isolated gusts to around 50 mph in
the northern Coachella Valley below the San Gorgonio Pass.

By Tuesday, guidance is indicating gradual warming will begin for
areas in and west of the mountains. That warming is expected to
spread to the deserts by Wednesday with continued warming for all
areas into at least next Friday. By next Thursday, there is over 60%
chance that above average temperatures will return to the lower
deserts, with chances increasing to over 90% for next weekend. This
is a good indicator that summer is finally settling in, with the
potential for a longer duration heat wave for next weekend into the
following week (week of June 23).

&&

.AVIATION...
142000Z...Coast/Valleys...Skies are clear with some remaining
stratocumulus along the beaches. Less marine layer is forecast
Friday night and Saturday and more confined to the immediate coast
as upper ridge warming builds overhead in the wake of the upper
trough exiting Arizona. Chances for low cloud formation is 80
percent for Saturday morning at KCRQ and KSAN, and 60 percent for
KSAN and ceilings will be lower near 1000 feet and 40 percent
chance of IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility. The timing of the onset
appears to be main challenge 08 to 10z and lingers through 14-15z.


Mountains/Deserts...SKC with unrestricted VIS. Gusty W-NW winds
peak surface wind gusts of 20-25 knots expected around KPSP. MOD
UDDFS expected over and east of the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds may gust to around 20 knots at times in the far
outer waters near San Clemente Island each afternoon and evening
Saturday through Monday. No other hazardous marine conditions
expected.

.BEACHES...
We have a mix swell with increasing south swell with long period on
Sunday so have issued Beach Hazard Statement for increased
rip currents and elevated surf.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino
     and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Coachella
     Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near
     Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Tardy