977
FXUS64 KSHV 261107
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
607 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Quiet across the region this morning, but the weather looks to
become more active today. The center of the aforementioned ridge
will remain across the Four Corners region. The eastern fringe of
the ridge is forecast to erode, allowing for more of a northerly
flow aloft to develop over most of our area. The forecast should
remain dry over most of the region at least through the morning
hours, but things get interesting afterwards. My current thinking
is that convection will be on-going across Southern
Missouri/Northern Arkansas this morning along a trough and
associated cool front. As the trough/front start to shift
southward along the flow, a line of convection will surge ahead
bringing convection into the region later on today. There are some
timing issues with this as some progs are bringing convection
into the region during the mid morning hours, with others holding
off until the late afternoon and evening hours. At this time, will
side with the later arrival of the MCS, which is what the HRRR is
suggesting. Because of the expected later arrival, temperatures
will likely warm into the mid to upper 90s again today, with a few
isolated 100 degree readings. Therefore, a Heat Advisory remains
in place through 7 PM this evening. Of course, if the precip
arrives earlier, this could change high temps for today, but the
next shift should have ample time to adjust if necessary. As the
convection moves into the region, can`t rule out some strong gusty
winds and brief heavy rainfall. One thing of note, some progs
have an additional line of convection developing during the late
evening hours and overnight into Thursday morning along the front
as it arrives into the region.

The front will likely stall and/or wash out over the area
on Thursday as upper ridging looks to re-establish itself over the
region. Can`t rule out more diurnal convection near the existing
boundary, but upper ridging should make for a drier forecast.
Believe at this time, the northern and eastern half of the region
should see some slightly cooler temps, so heat products may only
be needed for our East Texas and Western Louisiana zones.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Drier conditions will return Friday and Saturday, as the center of
the upper ridge moves back over the region. Additional heat
products will be likely, as afternoon highs will return into the
mid 90s to around 100 degrees.

Upper ridging will remain in place on Sunday and Monday, but the
center of the ridge will slide westward over North Texas. Long
range models are suggesting there could be enough weakness over
the region for some widespread convection to develop with daytime
heating. But, these chances look to diminish as we move into the
middle portions of next week, as the center of the ridge shifts
back over the region. Despite the rain chances, it still looks
like hot and humid conditions will continue. Additional heat
products will be likely with afternoon highs remaining in the mid
90s to near 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Given much greater confidence, I have expanded SHRA and TSRA
coverage into the afternoon, as it still looks like a disturbance
will move into the region. Skies will remain mostly VFR during
this timeframe, before some MVFR CIGS settle in begin this rain
past 27/09z.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  77  95  78 /  20  40  20  10
MLU  98  73  92  74 /  50  50  30   0
DEQ  96  73  93  73 /  30  30  10   0
TXK  98  75  95  77 /  30  40  10   0
ELD  96  71  91  72 /  40  30  10   0
TYR  98  77  97  78 /  20  30  10   0
GGG  98  76  95  77 /  20  30  10   0
LFK  98  77  95  76 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...44