527
FXUS64 KSHV 161932
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
232 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Daytime cu field is rapidly forming across the area this morning,
but temperatures have warmed fairly on schedule. Sea breeze
convection is moving into Southeast Louisiana and could still
affect some of our North Central and Central Louisiana parishes
during the afternoon. The most likely areas to see any showers or
thunderstorms would be our southeastern zones. Therefore, no
changes will be made to rain chances for this afternoon. Overall,
the forecast looks to be on track.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Clear skies are present on satellite this morning as the last
remaining influence of upper ridging continues to slide east. As the
ridge pattern works into eastern AL and western GA later this
morning, the ridge will strengthen, supporting a tightening of the
onshore sfc gradient locally. This will result in a northward
pull of rich tropical moisture, currently expanding from the Bay
of Campeche, eastward across the Florida Straits.

Afternoon sea breeze, along with inland diurnally driven
instability, will support showers and thunderstorms, mainly across
the SE and E zones of the FA. Not ruling out the chance for
outflow aiding in additional pop-up convection further west, but
for now, highest confidence in afternoon convective coverage
remains across the aforementioned regions of central and north-
central LA. Even with ongoing moisture advection across the region
through the late afternoon and evening, any convection that does
materialize should dissipate after sunset, with another muggy
overnight expected following afternoon maxT`s in the mid to upper
90`s.

By Monday morning, the ongoing development of a Central American
Gyre (CAG) will reinforce additional tropical moisture northward
as the onshore pressure gradient remains tight across the GOM.
This should support PWAT values around 1.5" to start the morning.
These are expected to climb through the afternoon as the tropical
airmass builds further into Louisiana and the surrounding Gulf
Coast states, aiding in local PWATs above 2". As a result, wide
spread showers and embedded thunderstorms will cover the region
through the day, into Monday night. Depending how fast showers and
thunderstorms build into the local area will dictate if any
additional changes will be needed for afternoon highs on Monday.
For now, still calling for upper 80`s to near 90 deg F for many.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The long term package starts with some uncertainty surrounding
the coverage of PoPs Tuesday and Wednesday as potential exists for
some tropical development in the Bay of Campeche, drifting north-
northwest. Plenty of uncertainty still surrounds the evolution of
this, but model ensemble members (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) have continued
to suggest a signal for some development late Monday night, early
Tuesday morning. Though conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, rainfall locally will depend on just how far north
the advertised system tracks. For now, continuing to advertise
higher confidence in PoPs across the southern and southeast zones
for Tuesday, with higher PoP coverage translating west across the
SW zones for Wednesday as whatever does develop works inland. Any
subtle shift north in the track of the advertised tropical
development will be reflected in PoP coverage and percentages so
be sure to stay tuned to the forecast for updates.

It is worth mentioning that while it is easy to get caught up in the
designation of any TC development this time of the year, especially
anything that may or may not develop close to home, it is
important to pay close attention to the impacts that come with
ragged and potentially disorganized systems. Given the potential
for moderate rainfall in a high moisture environment, a Slight
Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding (valid 12z
Tuesday to 12z Wednesday) has been added across Toledo Bend, SW
to Angelina National Forest, where the highest local rainfall
totals are expected given latest trends.

By Thursday, whatever is left of the aforementioned Gulf system
should be west of the FA. As a result, PoPs will decrease in
coverage. That being said, diurnally driven convective evolution
looks to be the primary supporter for any rainfall through the end
of the week, with highest confidence (though limited given
possible changes this far out) oriented across the southern zones
of the FA Friday and Saturday. As mentioned in the previous
afternoon package, and once again reflected in this package, the
positive to a precip focused forecast will be some temporary
relief from the mid 90`s that we start to see this time of the
year given enhanced cloud coverage. That being said, the relief
will be brief as temperatures are expected to climb once again by
the end of the package.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the 16/18z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing another
round of afternoon CU across much of the area, bringing FEW to SCT
and BKN clouds at around 5k feet. Otherwise, radar remains quiet
across our region, but we are seeing some convection across
southern Louisiana. Some of this activity might filter into
portions of our area, but shouldn`t impact any terminals at this
time. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  91  76  88 /   0  50  20  40
MLU  73  89  72  85 /  20  70  20  30
DEQ  71  89  71  88 /   0  30  10  30
TXK  75  92  73  90 /   0  40  10  30
ELD  72  89  71  85 /  10  50  10  30
TYR  74  90  74  90 /   0  40  10  20
GGG  74  90  73  89 /   0  50  10  30
LFK  74  89  73  86 /  10  60  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...33