408
FXUS64 KSHV 191759
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Temperatures have warmed quickly into the mid and upper 80s this
morning with a few locations already achieving 90 degrees. With
cloud cover limited to fair weather cumulus, we should easily add
several more degrees before reaching afternoon high temperatures
so minor upward adjustments were made in a few areas to account
for current obs and trends so far. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast is on track with no other changes needed at this time.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Mostly clear skies and light winds have settled across the region
this morning under upper-level ridging. Short-term progs suggest
that fog will form again over the next several hours, then
diminish a couple hours after daybreak. No widespread dense fog is
expected, but we will monitor this closely. With upper ridging
established over the region over the next couple of days, quiet
conditions will continue, but we will see above normal temperatures.
Afternoon highs will climb into the mid 90s under partly cloudy
skies. Despite the above normal temps, heat index values should
remain a few degrees below the 105 degree Heat Advisory criteria.

/20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper ridging will remain in place over the weekend, along with
the quiet and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will
once again climb into the mid 90s, with overnight lows remaining
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Despite the above normal temperatures,
heat index values should still remain just below the 105 degree
Heat Advisory criteria. By the first of next week, the ridge will
flatten out and start to shift eastward, as an approaching
longwave trough moves into the Southern Plains out of the Rockies.
Long-range progs are now suggesting the trough could make it into
our extreme northern sections as early as Monday, just north of
the Interstate 30 corridor. This would result in rain chances
across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent Southwest
Arkansas. The trough and associated cool front is expected to push
into the region, bringing a return in widespread rain chances, as
it stalls across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. As of now,
dry conditions look to return by next Thursday, as the frontal
boundary finally pushes east of the region. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, fair wx cu field is 3-5kft and will
thin out later this aftn. Few cirrus/SKC overnight with a touch
of BR at a few sites 10-13Z. Otherwise repeat performance to end
the work week and likely linger all weekend with a big upper ridge
over camping out over TX/LA. Our next cool front will be just
brushing in to about I-20 middle of next week, so that`s our
next expectation for some widespread convection. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  95  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  70  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  69  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  72  95  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  69  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  74  97  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  73  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  73  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24