Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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398 FXUS64 KSHV 260519 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 918 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A shallow, yet cooler airmass continues to build into the Four State Region tonight following the passing of a recent surface cold front. This will only be further enhanced by clearing skies overnight and radiational cooling as a result. Because of this, and with no real push from the evening guidance to prove otherwise, sticking with the advertised afternoon forecast package thinking and therefore, not proposing any changes with the evening update. Based on the details above, temperatures by Thursday morning will range between the upper 50`s along I-30 and north, with low and mid 60`s from Texarkana south. KNAPP && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 As the pseudo-stationary frontal boundary draped across the ArkLaTex finally begins to push south and east, it will take our persistent cloud cover with it, along with the scattered chances of showers and storms. Models have been somewhat inconsistent regarding the exact timing of the frontal passage, specifically with regard to whether or not we will see any further convective development this afternoon, kicked up by the boundary as a forcing mechanism. Continuing to carry slight chances for our southernmost zones through early evening. After 00Z tonight, PoPs drop to near negligible values, and quiet and dry weather conditions will follow and should persist through the day Thursday. Clouds look to dissipate as sunset approaches, with mostly clear skies to follow and continue through Thursday. The upper level trough responsible for swinging our cold front south and east this week will deepen over the middle Mississippi Valley as the week nears its end, to the point of forming a closed low over eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee by Thursday. With the cold front finally pushing completely out of the region, its effects will be noticeable first in the form of cooler than recent low temperatures to start the day tomorrow, ranging from the upper 50s north to middle 60s south, followed by highs climbing only into the low to mid 80s and remaining there for the foreseeable future. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 While the upper level trough forms a large and deep closed low over eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee, Hurricane Helene will be approaching landfall along the Florida panhandle, likely during the evening hours Thursday. Long-range forecast models have suggested a Fujiwara effect resulting from their interaction as this week comes to an end. Specifically, as Helene approaches land and intensifies, its presence will help amplify the middle Mississippi low upon approach. As Helene moves inland, it looks to get picked up by the circulation surrounding the middle Mississippi low, and swung around to the northwest over the Ohio Valley before ultimately getting absorbed by the Mississippi low. The effects of this pattern on ArkLaTex weather will take the form of renewed showers and storms across our northern zones Friday, swept in from the north on the western fringes of the upper level closed low to our northeast. The latest PoP grids keep this activity mostly to the north of the I-20 corridor, with the possible exception of some slight chances diving south towards Monroe and Shreveport Friday afternoon. This activity looks to dissipate quickly thereafter, lifting north and east Friday evening, with quiet conditions to follow. The vast closed low will lift far enough north and east to release the ArkLaTex from its grasp by the start of the weekend, with dry and quiet conditions prevailing through to the end of this extended forecast period. High temperatures may manage to rebound into the middle 80s but should not much exceed seasonable values, continuing into next week, with lows remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 For the 26/06z TAF update...Satellite imagery continues to show generally clear skies across the region, only picking up on a few high clouds lingering across deep east Texas. Nonetheless, SKC will prevail through around 26/16z before some mid level clouds around 5kt feet will be possible. Winds will be out of the north to northeast and will generally be around or under 10 kts throughout this period. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 86 64 82 66 / 0 0 20 10 MLU 83 63 80 64 / 0 0 30 20 DEQ 83 59 80 60 / 0 0 30 10 TXK 84 61 81 63 / 0 0 30 10 ELD 82 60 77 61 / 0 0 40 20 TYR 86 61 84 63 / 0 0 10 0 GGG 84 60 82 62 / 0 0 10 10 LFK 85 61 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...33