Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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386 FXUS64 KSHV 190336 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1036 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this time. /44/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A tropically-influenced weather pattern will continue across the Four State Region through the middle of the week. Southeasterly flow associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 (PTC1) in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will instigate precipitation chances south of the I-20 corridor through tomorrow evening. The diurnally driven nature of this convection, combined with the tropical windfield, lends itself towards afternoon/evening shower and isolated thunderstorm development today and tomorrow. That said, convection and cloud cover will provide meager relief with temperature maximums/minimums continuing above normal in the lower 90s/mid-70s. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 As tropical influences drift further away from the Four State Region, above average temperatures will gradually strengthen through the weekend. This is due to broad ridging across the Eastern U.S. that will intensify and expand westward into the Southern Great Plains by Friday, boosting easterly surface flow that becomes southerly flow later this weekend. Long-range guidance indicates higher chances of triple-digit temperatures with probabilities above 15 percent (statistically significant, some areas higher than 30 percent), especially north of the I-20 corridor. Heat hazard products will be more likely as a result later this weekend. Adequate precautions and awareness are encouraged ahead of time against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. For this weekend, this includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Scattered showers will continue to diminish over the next several hours. Although clouds will remain over the region, expect VFR conditions to return areawide and continue through the TAF period. The exceptions could be at KTYR and KLFK as models hint at a brief period of MVFR skies between midnight tonight and daybreak. Can`t rule out the return of showers/t-storms during the late afternoon, especially at KLFK. Otherwise, winds will remain from the ESE, gusting up to 15 to 20 kts during the afternoon hours. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 91 77 95 / 20 10 0 0 MLU 72 91 72 93 / 30 10 0 0 DEQ 70 87 72 92 / 10 10 0 0 TXK 73 90 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 ELD 71 89 70 93 / 20 10 0 0 TYR 74 88 74 93 / 10 20 10 0 GGG 74 89 74 93 / 20 20 10 0 LFK 74 90 74 93 / 30 40 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...20