458
FXUS64 KSHV 222016
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
316 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Another summer like day going, but perhaps the last for a while
anyway. Air temps are in the upper 80s and lower 90s with SW-SE
winds and dew points range mostly in the 60s, but with a few low
70s too. The cool front on approach will shallow without much
upper level support with the ridge still hanging on over the Gulf
coast. So we are starting to see a weak SW flow aloft set up to
assist the front, but this boundary will just wash out in house.

Fair skies tonight with more muggy low 70s areawide. The precip
now in central OK will edge our way with a slight chance arriving
near our I-30 corridor by daybreak. Most of the QPF signal favors
keeping north of I-20 this go around, but rain will become a
little more likely for our I-30 during Monday. Highs to start the
work week will ease back mainly as the clouds increase overhead.
The cold front will just not have enough of a push with modifying
high pressure content to settle over the southern plains and pinch
off of the main core that will head into the OH River Valley. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The overall westerlies flow pattern is being blocked off just off
the Atlantic seaboard with a Northeaster of sorts. However, this
will allow one more surface air mass to drop down out of Canada
and head our way during midweek and we will end up with a nice
deep trough that will close off and hang around for a good while.
The clouds and the rain will be best for our area during this
timeframe, along with much cooler temps than here lately.

The northerly winds filter in early this week, but take some time
to ramp up, which will eventually continue to spin the upper low
without deepening or filling, just keeping in place perfect for
us under the lower heights. And then the tropic cyclone comes
into play, and based on pressures in the models could be
substantial Cat 2 or maybe low end 3. The NHC continues with a
rapid spin up, which fits with the backdoor effect on the easterly
wave for the Gulf this time of year. So stay tuned for more.

What remains consistent is that the cyclone shears apart well
inland, but ends up going Fujiwara aloft with our upper low, and
even appears to absorb the cyclones upper core. This will foster
our lower heights aloft situation for an extra day or so. The WPC
QPF starts our mostly north of I-20 on days 1-3 and changes little
with most of the mid to late week QPF also north of I-20.
However, this will help our drought conditions greatly where is is
needed the most. Looking toward October, all this low pressure
aloft in the middle MS River valley will allow for a third large
cool air mass to drop down by the end of the month and help to
foster more below average temps in our area for an extended
period. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the 22/18Z TAF period, a healthy cu field has developed early
this afternoon, averaging between 3.5-6Kft with some occasional
low VFR cigs due to this cumulus layer. Most of this cloud cover
should diminish after sunset this evening with some upstream mid
and high level clouds gradually expanding eastward into our local
airspace. Convection should remain north of our terminals along a
slowly advancing cold front currently located from central and SW
Oklahoma back into the Texas Panhandle. Otherwise, cannot rule
out some patchy fog once again at a few sites closer to daybreak
Monday with MVFR vsby restrictions possible, mainly at LFK/MLU.
Light S/SW winds will decrease to less than 5 kts overnight and
increase again on Monday from W/SW ahead of the approaching cold
front. Low VFR cigs will be possible again late in the period as
cu/stratocu increases with heating by late morning.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  91  72  88 /   0  10  20  30
MLU  70  93  72  89 /   0   0  10  30
DEQ  70  84  62  85 /  20  60  30  20
TXK  72  89  68  86 /   0  40  30  20
ELD  70  91  69  86 /   0  20  30  30
TYR  73  89  68  89 /   0  20  20  30
GGG  72  90  69  87 /   0  20  30  30
LFK  72  91  71  90 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19