Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
804 FXUS64 KSHV 050648 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 148 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 No major wholesale updates are required to the forecast package at this time. Increased PoPs and added severe wording to the wx grids to account for the most recent approximate consensus of short range high resolution models. As of this writing, impacts from the MCS developing in central Oklahoma look to begin in McCurtain county between 08Z and 09Z, tracking southeast toward the Three-State Point by 12Z and further into the ArkLaTex as the morning continues. No Severe products are in effect for the ArkLaTex at this time, but Watch issuance within the next several hours is likely, based on the evolution of the storms in Oklahoma. Damaging winds will the primary threat, with large hail and a spin-up tornado or two also within the realm of possibility. In addition to the convective hazards, flash flooding will be a chief concern, as the region remains highly saturated and runoff is causing area waterways to continue to rise further, ahead of the heavy rainfall with the overnight and early morning storms. /26/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Unfortunately, another active short-term is on the horizon, as another thunderstorm complex looks to move into the region overnight, and linger through tomorrow afternoon. This MCS will very much resemble what we`ve been experiencing the last two days, with it moving into the area from the NW, exiting to the SE. A slight risk for severe weather remains in place across the region, as this MCS will be capable of producing damaging winds. Elsewhere, a moderate risk for excessive rainfall remains in effect for the overnight hours, as additional heavy rainfall is anticipated into tomorrow afternoon. Given the saturated soils, the flood watch remains in effect through tomorrow afternoon, as it won`t take much for additional flash flooding to occur. 1-3 inches of additional rainfall are possible, with locally heavier amounts certainly possible given these heavier rainfall rates. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 With all that bad news out of the way, there is a glimmer of hope of dry weather in the long-term. Upper-level ridging will nudge north into the day on Thursday, shifting the NW flow back to the north as well. This will result in limited rain chances into the day on Saturday, before this ridge begins to slightly retreat into Sunday. So while rain chances during this timeframe will be limited, high temperatures will begin to skyrocket, with highs in the mid-90s anticipated by Thursday. Come Monday, a trough and cold front will begin to work through the Midwest, with the front extending all the way back into W. Texas. This front will begin to increase rain chances once again across the region, with thunderstorm chances returning as well. /44/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 For the 05/06Z TAF period, a line of strong convection continues to shift into our NW airspace early this morning and will begin impacting some of our terminals prior to daybreak (TXK/TYR/GGG). SHV/ELD may also see this line arrive just before 12Z with gusty winds likely along the leading edge, generally between 25-40 kts. Additionally, low stratus will result in MVFR cigs expanding over our entire airspace through the remainder of this morning as the line of strong convection shifts farther SE of the Interstate 20 corridor with LFK/MLU seeing its arrival shortly after 12Z. Cigs will gradually improve this afternoon as convection largely exits the region with VFR conditions likely returning for the latter half of the TAF period. Breezy S/SE winds between 5-15 kts will become more variable (and briefly N/NW with line of convection) later in the period with winds decoupling by 06/00Z. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 89 72 94 73 / 60 20 10 0 MLU 87 70 92 70 / 70 30 10 0 DEQ 87 63 92 66 / 30 0 0 0 TXK 88 68 94 70 / 50 10 0 0 ELD 86 67 93 68 / 50 10 0 0 TYR 89 70 93 72 / 30 10 0 0 GGG 88 70 93 71 / 50 10 0 0 LFK 90 72 93 71 / 50 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126- 136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...19