Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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911 FXUS64 KSHV 210617 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 117 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Still seeing a few showers on radar across portions of deep east Texas, however, they are diminishing as I write this. As such, no major changes were needed to be made to the forecast for tonight. It is still going to be mild under partly cloudy skies. /33/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Dry and hot weather is now the main factor in conditions across the Four State Region as tropical influences wane for now. This is due to ongoing easterly surface flow that will also wane in intensity through the next 12 hours as surface ridging shifts westward and overhead. A warming trend will begin to take effect as a result with temperature maximums/minimums in the mid-90s/mid-70s. Dew points in the upper 60s/lower 70s will not help with overnight heat relief. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The hottest temperatures of the year are on the way to the Four State Region this weekend into early next week. The surface ridge axis responsible for this will continue to intensify across the Southern Great Plains, maintaining southerly flow by Sunday. Long- range guidance still indicates higher chances of triple-digit temperatures on Sunday and Monday with probabilities above 15 percent (statistically significant, some areas higher than 30 percent), especially along and north of the I-20 corridor. After the middle of next week, this ridge axis will break down further, opening the door for more diurnal convection that`s typical for this time of the year. While remaining well above average, temperature maximums will also retreat from triple-digit territory, but not by much in the upper 90s. Temperature minimums in the mid-to-upper 70s will not provide much in the way of heat relief overnight. Heat hazard products are likely late this weekend into early next week. Adequate precautions and awareness are encouraged ahead of time against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. For this weekend, this includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 113 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For the 21/06z TAFS...VFR conditions will prevail during the period, with scattered mid to high clouds for most of the period, and some afternoon CU. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or two for sites along and south of I-20 corridor during the afternoon and early evening hours, especially at KLFK. Otherwise, expect winds to toggle between light/variable to ESE around 5 kts. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 97 78 100 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 72 96 73 98 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 69 95 72 97 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 73 98 76 100 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 71 96 73 98 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 75 95 75 98 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 75 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 74 96 71 98 / 10 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...20