065
FXUS64 KSHV 250516
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1216 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

As of 930 PM, temperatures remain in the mid-to-upper 70s under
mostly cloudy skies. A stationary front continues to instigate
precipitation in southern zones while a disturbance ahead of
larger troughing over the midwest will boost precipitation
chances north of I-30 overnight. Temperature minimums remain on
track toward a range in the low-to-mid 60s as a result. With
weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast
grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The pseudo-stationary frontal boundary draped across the ArkLaTex
will continue to sustain isolated pockets of rainfall, with
discernible slight chance PoPs in the northwest and southeast
corners of the CWA this evening, expanding in coverage overnight.
Confidence is generally still on the lesser side of 50%, with higher
chances mostly confined to the I-30 corridor and adjacent zones.
Tomorrow will see a similar pattern unfold as we saw today, with
isolated showers continuing into the morning and appearing to shift
south through the day as the frontal boundary attempts to get moving
again and pushes off to our south and east. Conditions should remain
mostly dry for the rest of Wednesday and overnight into Thursday

Though exhibiting stationary characteristics for the time being, our
boundary is technically a cold front, and once it finally manages to
clear the area, its effects will be noticeable in the form of highs
falling into the low to mid 80s and remaining there for the next
several days. Lows will drop accordingly into the upper 50s to lower
60s.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The upper level trough responsible for swinging our cold front south
and east early this week will deepen over the middle Mississippi
Valley as the week continues, looking to form a closed low over
eastern arkansas and western Tennessee by Thursday. Meanwhile,
Tropical Storm Helene, likely having reached hurricane strength,
will be approaching landfall along the Florida panhandle. How this
two large-scale features interact with each other remains to be
seen, but enough models have indicated a Fujiwara effect resulting
from their convergence as this week comes to an end.

The effects of this pattern on ArkLaTex weather will take the form
of renewed showers and storms across our northern zones Friday,
swept in from the north on the western fringes of the upper level
closed low to our northeast. The latest PoP grids keep this activity
well to the north of the I-20 corridor, continuing possibly through
saturday afternoon, before tapering off altogether.

The closed low and associated troughing will lift far enough north
and east to release the ArkLaTex from its grasp by the latter half
of the weekend, with dry and quiet conditions prevailing through to
the end of this extended forecast period. High temperatures may
manage to rebound into the middle 80s but should not much exceed
seasonable values, continuing into next week, with lows remaining in
the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For the 25/06z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing an increase
in showers and thunderstorms for our northern zones of southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. This activity should continue to
push through our region tonight and into Wednesday morning as a
cold front begins to push through. As such, VCSH and VCTS will
remain possible for pretty much all terminals during this TAF
period. Winds will generally remain light throughout this period
and will gradually shift to the north as the front makes it
through. KLFK could see some BR this morning that will limit
visibility, so I have left some mention of that in there. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  64  84  63 /  40   0   0  10
MLU  83  62  83  62 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  82  58  82  59 /  20   0  10  20
TXK  82  61  82  61 /  40   0  10  10
ELD  81  59  80  59 /  40   0  10  10
TYR  83  62  84  62 /  40   0   0  10
GGG  82  61  83  60 /  40   0   0  10
LFK  84  64  84  62 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...33