Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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210 FXUS64 KSHV 241958 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 258 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The pseudo-stationary frontal boundary draped across the ArkLaTex will continue to sustain isolated pockets of rainfall, with discernible slight chance PoPs in the northwest and southeast corners of the CWA this evening, expanding in coverage overnight. Confidence is generally still on the lesser side of 50%, with higher chances mostly confined to the I-30 corridor and adjacent zones. Tomorrow will see a similar pattern unfold as we saw today, with isolated showers continuing into the morning and appearing to shift south through the day as the frontal boundary attempts to get moving again and pushes off to our south and east. Conditions should remain mostly dry for the rest of Wednesday and overnight into Thursday Though exhibiting stationary characteristics for the time being, our boundary is technically a cold front, and once it finally manages to clear the area, its effects will be noticeable in the form of highs falling into the low to mid 80s and remaining there for the next several days. Lows will drop accordingly into the upper 50s to lower 60s. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The upper level trough responsible for swinging our cold front south and east early this week will deepen over the middle Mississippi Valley as the week continues, looking to form a closed low over eastern arkansas and western Tennessee by Thursday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Helene, likely having reached hurricane strength, will be approaching landfall along the Florida panhandle. How this two large-scale features interact with each other remains to be seen, but enough models have indicated a Fujiwara effect resulting from their convergence as this week comes to an end. The effects of this pattern on ArkLaTex weather will take the form of renewed showers and storms across our northern zones Friday, swept in from the north on the western fringes of the upper level closed low to our northeast. The latest PoP grids keep this activity well to the north of the I-20 corridor, continuing possibly through saturday afternoon, before tapering off altogether. The closed low and associated troughing will lift far enough north and east to release the ArkLaTex from its grasp by the latter half of the weekend, with dry and quiet conditions prevailing through to the end of this extended forecast period. High temperatures may manage to rebound into the middle 80s but should not much exceed seasonable values, continuing into next week, with lows remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Mostly VFR conditions will continue through the 24/18Z TAF period. Cu cigs have developed early this afternoon along and S of a weak sfc front that extends just S of the I-20 corridor of E TX into NW LA, with AC and cirrus cigs also streaming ENE atop the front. Isolated to widely scattered convection is expected to develop by mid-afternoon ahead of the front over portions of Deep E TX into NCntrl LA, and VCTS was maintained at LFK to account for this potential through mid-evening before ending. While low AC and cirrus cigs may linger over these areas overnight, additional mainly elevated cigs will quickly spread SSE into the region from the NW after 06Z Wednesday, as scattered mainly elevated convection develops along a stronger cold front that will slide SSE through the region. Have added VCSH to the area terminals after 09Z, and carried them through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period, although the elevated convection should diminish from N to S by mid to late morning. Some patchy MVFR cigs may also develop by/after daybreak Wednesday especially over portions of E TX/Wrn LA, with any cigs returning to VFR by the afternoon. WNW winds around 5kts this afternoon will become Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 68 83 64 84 / 30 40 0 0 MLU 67 83 62 83 / 20 30 10 10 DEQ 61 82 58 82 / 60 20 0 10 TXK 65 82 61 82 / 50 40 0 10 ELD 63 81 59 80 / 30 40 0 10 TYR 68 83 62 84 / 40 40 0 0 GGG 66 82 61 83 / 30 40 0 0 LFK 70 84 64 84 / 30 40 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...15