845
FXUS64 KSHV 220550
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

After a few isolated showers popping up on radar earlier this
evening, it has since gone quiet. Satellite imagery is showing a
few high clouds across portions of the area but overall mostly
clear skies prevail. Made a few adjustments to the forecast just
to account for current trends, but the overall forecast for
tonight remains in place. /33/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The heat is on through the beginning of the weekend with a
warming trend developing across the Four State Region. Surface
ridging currently over the Mid-South will continue to gradually
shift eastward across the Mississippi River into the Southern
Great Plains by tomorrow afternoon, boosting temperature
maximums/minimums into the upper 90s/mid-to-upper 70s. Dew points
in the upper 60s/lower 70s will maintain outdoor conditions. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The hottest temperatures of the year are on the way to the Four
State Region through early next week. This is due to surface
ridging that will continue to slowly settle across the Southern
Great Plains, maintaining southerly flow through the middle of the
week. Medium-range guidance is trending toward slightly more
widespread chances of triple-digit temperatures on Sunday and
Monday with probabilities above 20 percent (statistically
significant, some areas higher than 30 percent). Heat hazards are
likely to be issued as a result.

After the middle of next week, this ridge axis will break down
further, opening the door for more diurnal convection that`s
typical for this time of the year. While remaining well above
average, temperature maximums will also retreat from triple-digit
territory, but not by much. Minimums in the mid-to-upper 70s will
not provide much in the way of heat relief overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For the 22/06z TAFS...VFR conditions will prevail during the
period with periods of few to scattered mid to high clouds
streaming over the area, along with some afternoon CU. Can`t rule
out a stray shower or two during the afternoon and early evening
hours, but confidence isn`t high enough to include in TAFS at this
time. Otherwise, expect light/variable winds overnight to become
SSW around 5 kts this afternoon, before becoming light/variable
again after sunset. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  99  79 100 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  75  98  77  99 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  72  96  73  98 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  76 100  77 101 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  74  98  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  76  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  72  97  75  98 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...20