242
FXUS64 KSHV 220521
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1221 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Prevailing upper-level ridge across the region to maintain stable
conditions through the remainder of the night. However, ongoing
convection across the Texas panhandle could allow for high
ceilings to overspread the ArkLaTex after midnight. At the
surface, high pressure to maintain a weak pressure gradient
leading to light winds areawide. Expect overnight low temperatures
to average in the lower 70s. No updated needed at this time. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The last official day of the summer season still certainly feels
like it if you`ve stepped outside this afternoon as temperatures
range from the lower to mid 90s across the region. Fortunately,
dew points have mixed out fairly well today and humidity levels
are tolerable with peak heat index values generally averaging in
the upper 90s to lower 100s. Another relatively warm overnight
period lies ahead with low temperatures ranging from the lower to
mid 70s under mostly clear skies as the afternoon cumulus field
will quickly fade after sunset.

One more day of above average temperatures is expected on Sunday
with the upper-level ridge will remain anchored along the Gulf
coast, albeit flattening out somewhat as an upper trough begins to
eject E/SE from the Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains.
This trough will help to usher a cold front into the Middle Red
Red Valley of southern Oklahoma and north central Texas by late
Sunday afternoon. As this front slowly eases farther SE by Sunday
evening into the overnight hours, some isolated convection will be
possible north of the I-30 corridor. Otherwise, the remainder of
the region will remain dry through the short-term period with just
some patchy fog possible during the pre-dawn hours late tonight
and again on Sunday night.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Starting the new work week will bring some changes to the forecast
in the form of slightly milder temperatures and increasingly better
rain chances as the week progresses. This will occur first with the
aforementioned cold front, although the front will be relatively
weak and likely stall out across the region through the mid-week
timeframe. In fact, high temperatures will still be in the upper
80s to lower 90s across much of the region through at least
Tuesday.

By Wednesday, a deeper trough and much stronger cold front will
quickly spill SE from the Great Plains with slightly higher rain
chances and noticeably milder temperatures expected through the
remainder of the week. Highs will generally range from the upper
70s to mid 80s behind the front with the associated upper-level
low possibly becoming closed off invof our region and prolonging
rain chances through the end of the week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the 22/06z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing SKC
across our region early this morning with a large complex of
clouds moving through central and southeast Oklahoma. Expecting
this trend to continue for the most part with maybe an increase in
high clouds across our northwest zones later this morning. Should
see less BR than what we have seen the past few mornings thanks to
some slightly stronger winds but I still have some mention of some
BR and limited visibility for KLFK as this seems to be a usual
spot for BR. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail throughout
this period. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  92  73 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  95  71  93  71 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  94  69  84  63 /   0  10  50  20
TXK  96  73  89  67 /   0   0  30  20
ELD  94  70  91  68 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  95  74  89  68 /   0   0  20  10
GGG  94  71  90  69 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  94  71  91  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...33