968
FXUS64 KSHV 231729
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Decided to make some minor adjustments to POPs and Temps to
account for current and forecasted trends. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast remains on track. A cool front,
currently located along a line from near Tyler Texas to De Queen
Arkansas, will continue to push eastward today into the region.
However, upper ridging across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE
CONUS will slow its eastward progression. There has been
convection along the boundary all morning, but it has decreased in
coverage and intensity over the past couple of hours. Ahead of
the boundary can`t rule out some isolated showers with daytime
heating, which is already being seen on radar. Although the
convection is diminishing, short-term progs suggest some
additional development will be possible along the front this
afternoon, with the best chances across our SE Oklahoma, NE Texas,
and South-Central Arkansas zones. Because of the boundary, rain,
and cloud cover, expect a gradient in high temps today. Areas
north of a line from Tyler Texas to Prescott Arkansas will
struggle to see highs in the mid to upper 80s. The remainder of
the region should see highs climb into the lower and possibly mid
90s. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The first front of the forecast period is beginning to push into
the region, with showers and thunderstorms gradually increasing
into the afternoon hours. This progression will be slow going,
with afternoon highs today still ranging in the mid-80s to
low-90s. However, with the influx of clouds, rain chances, and
cold air advection, highs tomorrow will drop in the mid and
upper-80s area-wide. Rain chances this short-term will also be
very dependent on front location, with the better rain chances
shifting south of I-20 by tomorrow afternoon.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

By Wednesday, the much deeper trough and closed low will begin
working SE through the Plains. This second front should push
through the region during the day on Wednesday, leaving much
cooler temperatures in its wake. Highs on Thursday will only range
in the mid-70s to low-80s, with highs hovering here through
Saturday. Rain chances into the weekend will also heavily depend
on tropical moisture wrapping around this low, and working back
south into the region. At this time, the best chances for rain
appear north of I-20, but this will be subject to change as this
low meanders as well.

The closed low will eventually pull back to the northeast, likely
associated with friction from the tropical disturbance, settling
somewhere in the Midwest. Here, it will keep winds from the north,
and dry air filtering into the region. While afternoon highs will
begin climbing through the weekend, overnight lows will continue
to range in the upper-50s and mid-60s due to the dry air.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the 23/12z TAF update...A weak cold front extends from
Terrell, TX to Hochatown, OK to Clarksville, AR this morning. In
association with this cold front, showers and thunderstorms are
moving along a very similar line and starting to move into our
area. Models indicate that this activity should diminish before
there is any significant impact to any terminals, however, I have
included some VCSH to KTYR and KGGG, as some of it could get close
to them. As this morning`s showers diminish, there should be some
redevelopment by this afternoon that could bring some
thunderstorms to more terminals. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  73  87  68 /  20  20  30  30
MLU  92  73  89  66 /  20  10  40  40
DEQ  82  62  85  60 /  50  30  10  30
TXK  87  67  86  64 /  40  30  20  30
ELD  93  68  86  63 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  84  68  88  66 /  30  20  30  20
GGG  88  69  87  65 /  30  30  30  30
LFK  92  73  89  68 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...33