Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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408 FXUS64 KSHV 191759 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Temperatures have warmed quickly into the mid and upper 80s this morning with a few locations already achieving 90 degrees. With cloud cover limited to fair weather cumulus, we should easily add several more degrees before reaching afternoon high temperatures so minor upward adjustments were made in a few areas to account for current obs and trends so far. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is on track with no other changes needed at this time. /19/ && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Mostly clear skies and light winds have settled across the region this morning under upper-level ridging. Short-term progs suggest that fog will form again over the next several hours, then diminish a couple hours after daybreak. No widespread dense fog is expected, but we will monitor this closely. With upper ridging established over the region over the next couple of days, quiet conditions will continue, but we will see above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid 90s under partly cloudy skies. Despite the above normal temps, heat index values should remain a few degrees below the 105 degree Heat Advisory criteria. /20/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Upper ridging will remain in place over the weekend, along with the quiet and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will once again climb into the mid 90s, with overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Despite the above normal temperatures, heat index values should still remain just below the 105 degree Heat Advisory criteria. By the first of next week, the ridge will flatten out and start to shift eastward, as an approaching longwave trough moves into the Southern Plains out of the Rockies. Long-range progs are now suggesting the trough could make it into our extreme northern sections as early as Monday, just north of the Interstate 30 corridor. This would result in rain chances across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent Southwest Arkansas. The trough and associated cool front is expected to push into the region, bringing a return in widespread rain chances, as it stalls across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. As of now, dry conditions look to return by next Thursday, as the frontal boundary finally pushes east of the region. /20/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, fair wx cu field is 3-5kft and will thin out later this aftn. Few cirrus/SKC overnight with a touch of BR at a few sites 10-13Z. Otherwise repeat performance to end the work week and likely linger all weekend with a big upper ridge over camping out over TX/LA. Our next cool front will be just brushing in to about I-20 middle of next week, so that`s our next expectation for some widespread convection. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 70 94 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 69 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 72 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 69 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 74 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 73 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 73 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...24