506
FXUS64 KSHV 181507
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1007 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Stratus/stratocu continues to slowly lift across parts of East TX
while most of our eastern zones remain cloud-free this morning.
Expect these low clouds across our western zones to eventually
scatter out into a cu field later today with mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies prevailing this afternoon. Other than a few
minor adjustments to sky grids, the remainder of the forecast is
on track. Updated text products to have been issued to remove fog
wording from earlier this morning.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...AMENDED
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The remnants of Francine have finally move out of the region, as
it got absorbed by a deepening trough across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and SE CONUS. Mostly clear skies and light winds have
settled across the region in wake of Francine remnants this
morning. Short-term progs suggest these conditions could yield
widespread patchy fog over the area in the next few hours, before
diminishing a couple hours after daybreak. At this time, not
expecting widespread dense fog, but we will monitor this closely.
Upper ridging will start to build into the area today. Partly
cloudy skies and warmer conditions will return to the region, with
highs climbing into the lower 90s areawide. Although drier
conditions are expected areawide, there could be just enough
weakness aloft for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop
today. But, confidence isn`t high enough to include rain chances
in the forecast, so decided to go with a 10 percent POP areawide.

Quiet and warmer conditions will continue into Thursday as the
upper ridge becomes more established across the region. Morning
lows will start off in the upper 60s to lower 70s again, followed
by partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 90s. /20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper ridging is expected to remain in place from the end of the
work week through the early portions of next week. Expect quiet
and mostly sunny conditions during this period, with highs in the
low to mid 90s, and overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. As we move into the middle portions of next week, the
ridge will flatten out and start to shift eastward, as an
approaching longwave trough moves into the Southern Plains out of
the Rockies. Long-range progs continue to suggest the trough
could make it into our extreme northern sections as early as
Tuesday evening, just north of the Interstate 30 corridor, resulting
in rain chances across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and
adjacent Southwest Arkansas. The trough and associated cool front
is expected to push into the region on Wednesday, bringing a
return in widespread rain chances. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Dealing with some valley and basin fog this morning with some of
this becoming dense. Any impacts to terminals should be brief with
rapidly improving conditions beyond 14-15z this morning. VFR
conditions should prevail outside these trouble spots and areawide
beyond mid-morning. Look for mostly variable winds below 10kts
today, decoupling this evening. Introduced some patchy MVFR VSBYS
once again after midnight across most terminals.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  66  93  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  70  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  66  92  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  73  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  93  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  73  92  73  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13