453
FXUS64 KSHV 211530
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Another hot day is underway for this last official day of summer.
Temperatures have already risen well into the 80s with another 10+
degrees left to climb before we top out in the mid and upper 90s
later this afternoon. Add in the humidity and heat index values
will range between 100-105 degrees with a few locations possibly
inching slightly higher, but that should be brief if it happens.
The current forecast reflects this thinking so no changes are
needed at this time.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The early morning water vapor imagery reveals upper ridging in
place across the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley, while a closed
low continues to drift E into Wrn AZ. The upper ridging remains
progged to linger over the region through tonight before sliding
SE to the TX/LA and Cntrl Gulf Coasts Sunday, as the Wrn AZ closed
low drifts NE through the Four Corners Region before opening up
into a trough tonight as it lifts NE into the Cntrl Plains. Thus,
summer`s last gasp will hang on for a couple more days (this
weekend), with abnormally hot, humid, and dry conditions
persisting. The NBM remains a bit too cool with max temps (as has
been the case the last few days), and thus have trended max temps
closer to persistence with what was observed Friday with readings
climbing to the mid/upper 90s. Enough mixing should be present by
afternoon though such that heat indices should again range from
100-105 degrees over much of the region. Some locales may briefly
exceed 105 degrees this afternoon, but given the isolated and
brief nature of this occurring, have held off on a Heat Advisory
attm. Temps should begin a gradual cooling trend Sunday as the
upper ridge slides SE, but still did bump NBM max temps up 1-2
degrees areawide to account for the potential to overachieve once
again.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The opening trough over the Cntrl Plains Sunday night will allow
for a cold front to shift SE through OK/N TX Sunday, but is
progged to slow as it approaches the higher terrain of the
Ouachitas Sunday evening. Model consensus suggests that the front
will not enter the far NW zones of extreme NE TX/SE OK until after
06Z Monday, at which point subtle forcing aloft ahead of the
trough would yield the potential for isolated convection along and
behind the front late Sunday night. Have extended slight chance
pops a bit farther E into McCurtain County OK and extreme NE TX
with the farther Ewd progression of the front, as it drifts SE
into more of NE TX/SW AR during the day Monday. Convection should
become more scattered after daybreak Monday along and behind the
front NW of the I-30 corridor, although QPF amounts should remain
mostly light before the larger scale forcing weakens by late
afternoon. The front itself should continue to drift SE into E
TX/NW LA Monday evening, although the cooler/drier air will lag
the front a ways as it potentially stalls briefly Tuesday with the
departure of the upper trough into the Mid MS Valley.

Did maintain slight chance pops along and ahead of the front over
Lower E TX/N LA/Srn AR Tuesday, although the potential will exist
for at least isolated convection to develop behind the front ahead
of another deepening upper low/accompanying trough that will
drift S into the Srn Plains/Mid and Lower MS Valley for mid and
late week. Still seeing some considerable disagreement with the
track of the low amongst the medium range progs, and thus, have
maintained the NBM slight chance pops for much of the area, which
will be dictated by the extent of drier air that will entrain ESE
ahead of the low or attendant trough. Should also see a much
awaited return to cooler (below normal) temps by late week as
well.

The latter portion of the extended period will be dictated
by the potential for tropical development in the Srn Gulf, with
the track of this potential system largely dependent on the
placement of the upper low or attendant trough. However, current
model trends suggest that the region may be close enough to the
trough such that the potential tropical system would be steered
NNE towards the Cntrl and NE Gulf Coast and thus, little if any
impacts other than the potential for maintaining cooler/drier low
level air into next weekend.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the 21/12z TAF update...Satellite imagery continues to show
fairly clear skies across the region this morning. Surface
observations are showing some BR across portions of the area that
has brought visibility down at times to around 3-5SM. Still have
some mention of reduction in visibility for KSHV, KMLU, KTXK,
KLFK, and KELD through about 13z this morning. After the BR burns
off shortly after sunset, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the remainder of the period and winds will remain under
10 kts out of the south to southeast. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  70  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  70  93  70 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  98  74  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  70  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  98  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  72  94  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...33