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FGUS74 KSHV 191817
ESFSHV

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
117 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Sabine River Basin of East Texas...

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. For example, for the Sabine River near Mineola
Texas, the flood stage is 14 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the
Sabine River will rise above 7.4 feet during the next 90 days.

        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
         valid for September 19, 2024 through December 17, 2024

     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Lake Fork Creek
 Quitman 4S        16  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.6  7.4  11.0 15.2 17.4
Sabine River
 Mineola 4S        14  3.8  3.9  3.9  4.2  7.4  12.2 15.9 17.3 17.8
 Gladewater 3WSW   26  6.1  6.3  7.0  8.0  9.0  11.3 21.6 24.6 30.6
 Longview          25  4.7  6.1  7.0  8.4  11.3 12.0 20.1 25.1 29.2
 Beckville 8NE     26  8.3  9.3  10.3 11.3 14.3 16.9 20.3 26.6 28.8
 Logansport        28  20.4 20.4 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.9 24.2 29.3
Big Sandy Creek
 Big Sandy 4NE     17  4.1  5.4  6.0  6.7  8.7  10.0 11.8 12.6 14.1
Rabbit Creek
 Kilgore           10  4.5  4.8  5.8  8.9  9.4  10.6 11.5 12.0 13.5

 Location     90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
 ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Cherokee  279.6 279.6 280.0 280.1 280.2 280.3 280.3 280.5 281.3
Lk Martin    304.8 304.8 305.2 305.7 306.1 306.2 306.3 306.5 307.2
Lk Murvaul   264.8 265.0 265.4 265.6 265.7 265.9 266.7 267.0 268.0

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities
computed using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These probabilities also
account for the current river flows and soil moisture conditions.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be
determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL: https://water.weather.gov/wfo/shv (internet
address URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.

$$

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