Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
414 FGUS74 KSHV 151741 ESFSHV 161140- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1241 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River basin of East Texas... In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during the next 90 days. For example...the Sabine River near Mineola Texas flood stage is 14 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Sabine River will rise above 5.2 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations valid for August 15, 2024 through November 12, 2024 ] Location FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lake Fork Creek Quitman 4S 16 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.0 7.7 14.3 15.3 Sabine River Mineola 4S 14 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.4 5.2 7.8 13.6 15.8 17.9 Gladewater 3WSW 26 6.1 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.9 9.0 15.2 18.6 31.4 Longview 25 4.8 5.2 6.2 7.8 8.6 11.0 13.9 19.8 28.4 Beckville 8NE 26 7.9 8.4 9.1 10.5 11.6 15.5 17.2 20.1 27.9 Logansport 28 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 22.8 27.3 Big Sandy Creek Big Sandy 4NE 17 4.2 4.2 5.1 5.8 6.7 7.8 9.5 11.4 13.5 Rabbit Creek Kilgore 10 4.3 4.5 4.9 6.1 7.1 8.4 9.6 11.4 12.0 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Lk Cherokee 279.9 279.9 279.9 280.0 280.0 280.1 280.1 280.4 280.7 Lk Martin 305.5 305.5 305.5 305.5 305.6 305.8 306.2 306.3 306.5 Lk Murvaul 265.1 265.1 265.1 265.2 265.4 265.6 265.9 266.1 266.5 This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the internet at this URL: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv (internet address URL is all lower case). Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third Thursday of every month. $$ 88