668
FXUS64 KSJT 190749
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
249 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

As of the 2 PM hour low level stratus has scattered out across
most of the area. South-southeast winds, however, have remained
quite gusty this afternoon, with gusts up to 40 mph earlier at
Abilene. The gusty conditions will continue through the remainder
of the afternoon and evening hours. Low level moisture will
continue advecting into the area overnight resulting in another
round of low cloud development. Meanwhile, we continue to watch
the potential tropical system down in the southern Gulf of
Mexico. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms spreading
inland across the middle and lower Texas coast on Wednesday, with
this activity spreading westward to the I-35 corridor by the
afternoon. CAMs keep most of our area dry through the much of the
day, with some scattered showers and storms perhaps moving into
our southeastern counties by the mid-late afternoon. Will keep
40-50% PoPs confined to that area, with lesser PoPs back to the
west from San Angelo to Abilene. Cloud cover for most of the day
will keep our temperatures down in the middle 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...Lingering tropical moisture through Thursday, then a drying
and warming trend from Friday into mid next week...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which will likely become Tropical
Storm Alberto today, and is forecast to track due west into
northern Mexico by Thursday morning. Given this more westerly
track, the bulk of heavier precipitation is expected to remain
confined to the south and southwestern portions of West Central
Texas for Thursday. As the system weakens and track further east
as a tropical depression Thursday night, precipitation chances
begin to diminish overnight into early Friday morning mainly
across the Northern Edwards Plateau. The increased cloud cover
will keep cooler temperatures across the area for Thursday, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

Friday begins a warming and drying trend that will persist into
the middle of next week, with afternoon high temperatures on
Friday ranging in the mid 80s to mid 90s, then gradually
increasing to the mid 90s to near 102 by next Wednesday. Overnight
lows will remain fairly steady in the upper 60s to mid 70s through
the weekend, and then in the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. MVFR stratus is
beginning to build across the Hill Country and will build
northwest over the coming hours, impacting all terminals. Unlike
yesterday, this are not expected to scatter out later in the day
but most sites, besides KJCT, should see ceilings lift to low end
VFR by this afternoon. Southeast winds should lose their gusts for
at least a few hours overnight before picking back up later this
morning, backing to a more easterly direction. Chances for showers
will begin to impact our southeastern terminals by late
morning/early afternoon, with more substantial shower activity
expected to move in later in the evening. Have used latest hi-res
guidance for timing but this will likely need to be adjusted with
future updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  71  87  71 /  10  30  20  10
San Angelo  90  71  89  71 /  10  40  40  10
Junction    85  71  87  72 /  30  60  30  10
Brownwood   83  72  88  71 /  20  40  10  10
Sweetwater  89  70  87  71 /  10  30  30  10
Ozona       87  69  86  69 /  10  60  50  30
Brady       82  70  85  70 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...50