324
FXUS64 KSJT 172307
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
607 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...Continued warmer than normal with dry weather...

West central Texas remains under upper level ridging this
afternoon. However, to our northwest, a shortwave is moving
through eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle region.
This is resulting in scattered thunderstorms moving northeast
across northeastern New Mexico, and also lee troughing, allowing
for a few gusts in our area out of the south and southeast.
Although a few isolated showers are possible this afternoon and
evening east of a Brownwood to Sonora line, as with yesterday,
coverage is expected to be too sparse to be worth mentioning.
Otherwise, the warm temperatures will continue, with lows tonight
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and highs tomorrow in the low to
mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper-level ridging will continue over the area through the rest
of the work week, as upper level troughs sit over both the west
and east coasts of the United States. This will allow the above-
normal temperatures to continue for much of this week, with
forecast highs in the 90s. We could start to see a pattern change
as the troughing over the west coast moves east. As the short wave
trough approaches the southern Rockies, the ridge axis over our
area will start to tilt, eventually weakening, and becoming more
zonal by early next week. The strength, timing, and exact path of
this short wave varies between models, impacting precipitation
chances and temperatures for this weekend and early next week.
Models have been going back and forth on whether or not this
system will push a cold front through West Central Texas late this
weekend and early next week. If we see a stronger and more
southern track of the low, disturbances could move through aloft
ahead of the shortwave, leading to rain chances on Saturday. We
could also see a cold front develop and move through the area,
leading to better rain chances and slightly lower temperatures for
Sunday and Monday. However, there is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with this system. If the shortwave is weaker and moves
further north, we could see a mostly dry forecast for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions expected for the overnight hours. Winds out of the
southeast will start to come down after sunset but should stay
between 5-10 kts overnight. There is a possibility that MVFR
ceilings could move out of South Central Texas and into our
southern terminals during the morning hours tomorrow. Confidence
is medium-low on if this will be patchy or a more solid deck of
stratus. For now, have gone with a TEMPO MVFR grouping for KJCT
and a prevailing MVFR for KSOA where confidence is slightly higher
in at least BKN coverage. Further adjustments will likely need to
be made with updated guidance in the 06Z forecast. Winds out of
the south/southeast will increase again by mid/late morning with
some sites seeing gusts in the 17-22kt range during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  95  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  70  95  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    70  93  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   70  95  72  97 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  72  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       70  91  73  93 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       70  93  72  94 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...50