Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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461 FXUS64 KSJT 161911 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 No significant changes from the previous forecast. The upper level ridge will generally remain over the area through Tuesday, keeping temperatures warmer than normal, and rain chances low. The HRRR and NAMNest do show an isolated shower or two this evening and tomorrow afternoon, but will keep the forecast dry as the coverage is expected to be so sparse that it doesn`t need mentioning. Otherwise, look for lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and highs on Tuesday generally in the mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...Warmer than normal temperatures through at least Saturday... ...Weak cold front arrives Sunday with a chance for showers and storms... In general, an upper level trough will remain just far enough off to the west through Saturday to keep an upper level ridge in place across West Central Texas. This means above normal temperatures with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s across the area. Some of the models do indicate a weak shortwave making a little closer approach by Wednesday afternoon to produce a few showers and storms across portions of the South Plains and Red River Valley. Models have this dissipating north of the area, but given how slowly the convection dissipated on Sunday evening, expect the convection Wednesday to linger a little longer as well and perhaps reach into portions of the northwest Big Country by Wednesday evening. Otherwise, main weather story will come with the arrival of a weak cold front for Sunday and Monday, bringing a chance of at least isolated showers and storms and a little cooler temperatures. Nothing looks terribly drastic at this point but some highs down in the upper 80s looks possible, and will continue the mention of 20% to 30% POPs at this point. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours at all sites. South to southeast winds of around 10 knots or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 69 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 68 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 68 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 71 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 68 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 69 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20