102
FXUS64 KSJT 200519
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1219 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

All eyes are on the newly-formed Tropical Storm Alberto, located in
the Bay of Campeche, as this will be the main source of weather
concerns through Thursday night.  As of this afternoon, clouds were
increasing across west central Texas with the approaching system.
While the main circulation should stay well to the south along the
Mexican coast, a northern arm of the upper-level structure has
started to sweep westward into the southern half of Texas.  This is
evidenced by the large rainband currently located along the I-35
corridor.  As the feature tracks westward, the rain should sweep
mainly through the Hill Country and the Edwards Plateau through
tomorrow morning.  Rain should reach our southeast counties,
including cities such as Junction, San Saba and Mason. The heaviest
rainfall amounts tonight are expected further south with the higher
PWAT values, although these should only range in the 0.25 to 0.50
inch range.  At this point, chances for thunderstorms this evening
and overnight look fairly low as overall instability will be low
with this initial band, but isolated strikes are still possible.

By sunrise, the rain band will have reached the Pecos River, but
should leave a trailing area of moist and unstable air in its wake
across the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau and through the Hill
Country. Low clouds should be prevalent across the region through
the morning hours before some breaks appear around midday.  Chances
for thunderstorms should therefore increase by tomorrow afternoon
with CAPE values of around 2000 J/kg. Given the tropical-based
airmass with fairly low LCL heights, any storms that develop should
be single-cell and scattered in nature. PWAT values should increase
to above 2 inches so thunderstorms could produce brief heavy
downpours, although chances for severe storms are low.

As Alberto pushes into central Mexico and degenerates into a remnant
low Thursday evening, chances for rain will diminish and become
confined to Crockett County and the western Concho Valley Thursday
night.  A more stable airmass should take over by early Friday
morning as a broad upper ridge, located over the Ohio Valley, starts
to build into west central Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

On Friday, we will start to redevelop hot and dry condition
across the region. A high pressure system will develop across the
southwestern U.S., which will leave us on the eastern end of this
system. This will be the root cause of our hot and dry conditions.
Some locations may make a return to the triple digits early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR to IFR conditions currently present across the area right now as
a swath of showers moves in from the southeast. These showers have
had minimal impact on visibility so far with most sites staying
above 6 miles, apart from KJCT where 5 mile visibility looks to
linger through the overnight hours. Ceilings at all sites are
expected to drop further to between MVFR and IFR later overnight.
Our southern sites, KJCT and KSOA, will see gusts out of the east
continue through the overnight hours between 18-25 kts with the
other sites seeing gusts drop off. The rain showers will gradually
move out through the morning hours with all sites returning to
VFR by late morning/early afternoon. There remains a chance for
isolated shower/storm activity during the afternoon but coverage
is still too spotty to include a mention in this package. MVFR
ceilings will return to our southern terminals before 06Z tomorrow
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  71  90  72 /  30   0   0   0
San Angelo  88  71  92  71 /  40  10  10   0
Junction    87  71  89  70 /  40  10  10   0
Brownwood   87  71  89  70 /  20   0   0   0
Sweetwater  86  71  91  71 /  30  10   0   0
Ozona       85  70  88  70 /  50  30  10  10
Brady       85  70  86  70 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...50