612
FXUS64 KSJT 200813
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
313 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

As of 230 AM, a broad swath of light to very light rain was
impacting most areas south and east of an Albany to Ozona line.
Rainfall rates with these showers are topping out at a few
hundredths an hour with the highest around 2 tenths of an inch an
hour across far southeastern Mason County. As this rain spreads
north and west, it seems to be losing its strength with radar
returns weakening significantly and most of this rain likely not
reaching the ground. A band of heavier rain is currently moving
through Llano and Gillespie counties and is moving west northwest
towards Kimble and Mason counties. Heavier rainfall rates closer
to 3-4 tenths of an inch per hour can be expected with this but it
is moving fairly quickly so the heavier burst will be short
lived. The overall complex of rain is expected to slowly drift
west/northwest through the morning with the bulk of the activity
out of our area by around 18Z. With our area on the far western
periphery of the upper ridge, some minor upper level impulses may
provide just enough additional lift to create some showers and
storms, especially across the southern half of the area as
abundant moisture will still be in place, along with marginal
instability at around 500-800 J/kg SBCAPE. These are expected to
be more diurnal in nature and are not expected to be severe. They
should gradually dissipate after sunset with the overnight hours
expected to be dry across the area. Daytime highs will remain
cooler in the mid to upper 80s with gusty east winds. Overnight
lows will be about the same as before in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

On Friday, we will start to redevelop hot and dry condition
across the region. A high pressure system will develop across the
southwestern U.S., which will leave us on the eastern end of this
system. This will be the root cause of our hot and dry conditions.
Some locations may make a return to the triple digits early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR to IFR conditions currently present across the area right now as
a swath of showers moves in from the southeast. These showers have
had minimal impact on visibility so far with most sites staying
above 6 miles, apart from KJCT where 5 mile visibility looks to
linger through the overnight hours. Ceilings at all sites are
expected to drop further to between MVFR and IFR later overnight.
Our southern sites, KJCT and KSOA, will see gusts out of the east
continue through the overnight hours between 18-25 kts with the
other sites seeing gusts drop off. The rain showers will gradually
move out through the morning hours with all sites returning to
VFR by late morning/early afternoon. There remains a chance for
isolated shower/storm activity during the afternoon but coverage
is still too spotty to include a mention in this package. MVFR
ceilings will return to our southern terminals before 06Z tomorrow
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  71  90  72 /  20  10   0   0
San Angelo  88  71  92  71 /  50  20  10   0
Junction    87  72  89  70 /  40  30  10   0
Brownwood   87  71  89  70 /  20  10   0   0
Sweetwater  86  71  91  71 /  40  10   0   0
Ozona       86  70  88  70 /  60  30  10  10
Brady       85  71  86  70 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...50