383
FXUS64 KSJT 170535
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Most of the state of Texas is between the 500mb subtropical ridge
across northwest Mexico and the 500mb ridge along the middle
Atlantic United States coastline. This will provide a shear axis
across the central and eastern portions of the state tonight into
Monday. The question tonight into early Mon morning is whether any
convection will develop across west Texas tonight and propagate into
portions of west central Texas similar to last night. The latest
HRRR does prog some thunderstorms developing across west Texas
this evening and outflow from this convection may provide a focus
for showers and thunderstorms to develop across portions of the
northern Edwards Plateau late tonight into early Monday morning.
Will mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across
southwest portions of the CWA tonight into early Monday as a
result. Breezy conditions are expected to prevail tonight into
Monday as the pressure gradient remains relatively strong across
west Texas. Temperatures will continue to remain above normal
Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The focus for the long term continues to be the possibility of
heavy rainfall across parts of the area in the Wednesday through
Friday timeframe but especially on Thursday. Mainly dry conditions
will persist on Tuesday and most of Wednesday although we could
see some scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to spread into
our southeastern counties during the afternoon on Wednesday.

We continue to monitor a tropical disturbance in the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico which now has a 70% chance of developing into a
tropical depression or tropical storm. Whatever ultimately
develops will likely move across northern Mexico or south Texas
around the middle of the week. Deep easterly flow around this
system will advect abundant Gulf moisture into the region, with
precipitable water values increasing to as high 1.8-2.0 inches.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Thursday especially south of I-20 as this tropical moisture begins
to spread into the region. There are still differences amongst
the operational guidance regarding rainfall amounts- the ECMWF
continues to hold a stronger ridge over the area shunting most of
the tropical moisture to the south while the GFS shows upper
level troughing over the area and thus higher rainfall amounts.
Given the uncertainty in the ultimate evolution/track of the Gulf
system and subsequent rainfall amounts for our area will continue
to stick with the model blend for now which shows a 40-50% chance
of PoPs in the Thursday/Friday time frame. Please stay tuned as
we get a better handle on this potential Gulf of Mexico
disturbance and continue to refine rainfall amounts.

With the increasing rain chances and expected cloud cover
temperatures will be much cooler after Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday
though Friday will be mainly in the 80s, with overnight lows in
the 60s. Drier and warmer conditions will return for next weekend
as upper level ridging builds back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions expected through 09Z. 09Z-15Z, MVFR CIGs around
1500-2500 ft AGL expected to move into an area south and east of
roughly a KSJT to KCOM line, impacting KJCT, KSOA and KBBD. Chance
that KSJT will get MVFR conditions, but confidence too low to put
in TAFs. 15Z today through 06Z Tues, VFR conditions expected.
Gusty SE winds expected through 06Z Tues, at generally 12-16 KT
with gusts of 18-25 KT, except during the 13Z today to 01Z Tues,
when stronger wind speeds of 15-22 KT with gusts of 27-34 KT
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  73  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  99  74  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    97  74  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   90  73  90  71 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  97  73  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       96  74  95  72 /  20   0   0   0
Brady       92  73  90  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...SJH