160
FXUS64 KSJT 192310
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

All eyes are on the newly-formed Tropical Storm Alberto, located in
the Bay of Campeche, as this will be the main source of weather
concerns through Thursday night.  As of this afternoon, clouds were
increasing across west central Texas with the approaching system.
While the main circulation should stay well to the south along the
Mexican coast, a northern arm of the upper-level structure has
started to sweep westward into the southern half of Texas.  This is
evidenced by the large rainband currently located along the I-35
corridor.  As the feature tracks westward, the rain should sweep
mainly through the Hill Country and the Edwards Plateau through
tomorrow morning.  Rain should reach our southeast counties,
including cities such as Junction, San Saba and Mason. The heaviest
rainfall amounts tonight are expected further south with the higher
PWAT values, although these should only range in the 0.25 to 0.50
inch range.  At this point, chances for thunderstorms this evening
and overnight look fairly low as overall instability will be low
with this initial band, but isolated strikes are still possible.

By sunrise, the rain band will have reached the Pecos River, but
should leave a trailing area of moist and unstable air in its wake
across the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau and through the Hill
Country. Low clouds should be prevalent across the region through
the morning hours before some breaks appear around midday.  Chances
for thunderstorms should therefore increase by tomorrow afternoon
with CAPE values of around 2000 J/kg. Given the tropical-based
airmass with fairly low LCL heights, any storms that develop should
be single-cell and scattered in nature. PWAT values should increase
to above 2 inches so thunderstorms could produce brief heavy
downpours, although chances for severe storms are low.

As Alberto pushes into central Mexico and degenerates into a remnant
low Thursday evening, chances for rain will diminish and become
confined to Crockett County and the western Concho Valley Thursday
night.  A more stable airmass should take over by early Friday
morning as a broad upper ridge, located over the Ohio Valley, starts
to build into west central Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

On Friday, we will start to redevelop hot and dry condition
across the region. A high pressure system will develop across the
southwestern U.S., which will leave us on the eastern end of this
system. This will be the root cause of our hot and dry conditions.
Some locations may make a return to the triple digits early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Scattered showers will continue to rotate across West Central
Texas around the outskirts of Alberto through tonight and into
Thursday morning. Aviation impacts look limited at this point,
perhaps dropping visibility to under 6 miles briefly across the
southern terminals. Otherwise, the VFR cigs that are ongoing this
evening will deteriorate some overnight and may eventually become
IFR by morning as the tropical moisture continue to flow into the
area. Some improvement expected Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  87  71  90 /  20  30   0   0
San Angelo  72  88  71  93 /  30  40  10  10
Junction    72  87  71  90 /  60  40  10  10
Brownwood   73  87  71  89 /  30  20   0   0
Sweetwater  71  86  71  90 /  20  30  10   0
Ozona       71  85  70  89 /  50  50  30  10
Brady       71  85  70  86 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...07