909
FXUS64 KSJT 210525
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Similar to yesterday, high dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s and
above-normal temperatures are combining to make very uncomfortable
conditions with heat indices in the upper 90s to near 105. Tomorrow
will be a bit more bearable, temperature wise, as an upper low
approaches from the west. The low is currently sitting over southern
California and is forecast to push eastward towards the four corners
region tomorrow. As it does this, the ridge will start to break down
slightly. This will allow our temperatures to decrease by a few
degrees, keeping our heat indices below 100 degrees for most of the
region. Winds will be gusty tomorrow afternoon again, with gusts
around 20 to 30 mph. The precipitation ahead of the previously
mentioned upper low is expected to remain to our north and west
tomorrow, leaving us with a dry forecast for Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...Increasing rain chances Sunday and Sunday night as cold front
moves through...

...Cooler temperatures and additional rain chances Monday through
Wednesday...

Short wave trough will be situated over the Desert Southwest on
Saturday and will lift northeast across the southern Rockies and
into the central Plains Sunday into Monday. Associated cold front
will drop south across the area late Sunday afternoon and evening,
and will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms across the
area. Precipitation looks quite promising as early as Sunday
afternoon from San Angelo northward, with precipitation chances
increasing from south to north Sunday evening/overnight as the
front pushes south. Current NBM medium POPs look reasonable and
given precipitable water values between 1.5 and 2 inches, locally
heavy rainfall is possible.

Rain chances will begin to decrease across the area on Monday, as
a the front pushes south of the area and the shortwave continues
to lift northeast. Rain chances will return to the area Tuesday
into Wednesday, as another shortwave dives south across the
Rockies, possibly forming a closed low across the southern High
Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. Still some model differences
regarding this scenario but confidence is increasing for another
round of showers and storms across the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. Also looking at considerably cooler temperatures early
to mid week, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s on Monday
and mainly low to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry conditions
expected for the end of the week, with temperatures near or
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

MVFR ceilings are likely to develop again overnight tonight and
burn off shortly after sunrise. Gusty winds will then develop,
which will be the other main concern for this TAF period. Overall,
confidence is high in regard to this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     95  73  90  58 /   0   0  50  70
San Angelo  95  73  92  61 /   0   0  30  70
Junction    93  69  91  65 /   0   0  10  40
Brownwood   95  71  92  62 /   0   0  10  50
Sweetwater  95  74  88  58 /   0  10  70  70
Ozona       91  72  88  62 /   0   0  20  60
Brady       92  69  90  64 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...41