643
FXUS64 KSJT 201045
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
545 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Expect hot and humid conditions today as a strong upper level high
pressure ridge(current 500 MB temperatures around 0 deg C) remains
over the Southern Plains. Heat Index values may reach 100 to 105
across much of the area for a few hours this afternoon due to low
level moisture combining with the above normal temperatures. Highs
will be 95 to 100. If you have to be outside, please follow heat
safety precautions. Expect another warm and humid night with lows
70 to 75.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...Chance of Showers and Storms return starting Sunday as a cold
front moves into the area.

...Temperatures cool back to near or below normal for next week...

Model blends and ensembles have come into a little better
agreement for the upcoming week and therefore rain chances have
inched up a little more. General idea is that the upper level
ridge will weaken and allow a broad upper level trough to settle
into the Plains. Cold front arrives with it on, sagging into the
area as early as Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Good low level
moisture remains in place and will overrun the frontal boundary
with rain chances increasing Sunday night, with the primary focus
on the area north and west of an Abilene to San Angelo line.

The main shortwave will push away from the area and rain chances
will decrease for Monday and Monday Night, before another
shortwave rounds the base of the main upper trough and helps
produce another round of convection for mid week. Lots of spread
in the models specifically with regards to timing of the second
shortwave so suspect that as we get closer to the event, the broad
POPs we see in the mid to late next week will settle into a few
periods of higher POP chances with less the rest of the time.

As for temperatures, cloud cover and rain will drop afternoon
highs back into the 70s and 80s for Monday with readings mainly
near or a little below normal for the rest of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings are possible at the southern
terminals this morning due to southerly flow and low level
moisture. The KSOA terminal already has MVFR ceilings and may
briefly fall to IFR for a few hours. The low clouds will break up
by early this afternoon and expect VFR for the rest of TAF
period. Expect south to southeast winds to be a little gusty
this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     96  73  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  97  73  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    95  71  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   97  71  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  96  74  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       92  73  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       94  71  92  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21