Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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668 FXUS64 KSJT 190749 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 As of the 2 PM hour low level stratus has scattered out across most of the area. South-southeast winds, however, have remained quite gusty this afternoon, with gusts up to 40 mph earlier at Abilene. The gusty conditions will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Low level moisture will continue advecting into the area overnight resulting in another round of low cloud development. Meanwhile, we continue to watch the potential tropical system down in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms spreading inland across the middle and lower Texas coast on Wednesday, with this activity spreading westward to the I-35 corridor by the afternoon. CAMs keep most of our area dry through the much of the day, with some scattered showers and storms perhaps moving into our southeastern counties by the mid-late afternoon. Will keep 40-50% PoPs confined to that area, with lesser PoPs back to the west from San Angelo to Abilene. Cloud cover for most of the day will keep our temperatures down in the middle 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...Lingering tropical moisture through Thursday, then a drying and warming trend from Friday into mid next week... Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which will likely become Tropical Storm Alberto today, and is forecast to track due west into northern Mexico by Thursday morning. Given this more westerly track, the bulk of heavier precipitation is expected to remain confined to the south and southwestern portions of West Central Texas for Thursday. As the system weakens and track further east as a tropical depression Thursday night, precipitation chances begin to diminish overnight into early Friday morning mainly across the Northern Edwards Plateau. The increased cloud cover will keep cooler temperatures across the area for Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Friday begins a warming and drying trend that will persist into the middle of next week, with afternoon high temperatures on Friday ranging in the mid 80s to mid 90s, then gradually increasing to the mid 90s to near 102 by next Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain fairly steady in the upper 60s to mid 70s through the weekend, and then in the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 VFR conditions currently present across the area. MVFR stratus is beginning to build across the Hill Country and will build northwest over the coming hours, impacting all terminals. Unlike yesterday, this are not expected to scatter out later in the day but most sites, besides KJCT, should see ceilings lift to low end VFR by this afternoon. Southeast winds should lose their gusts for at least a few hours overnight before picking back up later this morning, backing to a more easterly direction. Chances for showers will begin to impact our southeastern terminals by late morning/early afternoon, with more substantial shower activity expected to move in later in the evening. Have used latest hi-res guidance for timing but this will likely need to be adjusted with future updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 87 71 87 71 / 10 30 20 10 San Angelo 90 71 89 71 / 10 40 40 10 Junction 85 71 87 72 / 30 60 30 10 Brownwood 83 72 88 71 / 20 40 10 10 Sweetwater 89 70 87 71 / 10 30 30 10 Ozona 87 69 86 69 / 10 60 50 30 Brady 82 70 85 70 / 30 50 30 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...50