734
FXUS64 KSJT 271059
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
559 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

First, the heat will continue this afternoon with the upper level
ridge almost directly across the area. Some storms across the Red
River Valley will produce more high clouds across the area than in
previous days, but most of this will be gone for the afternoon.
Temperatures may lag previous days by a few degrees in the morning
but should have time to catch up during the afternoon. Low level
moisture isn`t going anywhere so either temperatures or heat
index values will hit the 105 mark or higher across most of the
Concho Valley, Big Country, and Heartland like the last several
days.

Second, have added some small POPs across the eastern portions of
the area for this afternoon. Outflow boundary from yesterdays
convection moved west into central Texas, along with weak
northernly flow aloft along the edge of the center of upper level
ridge. CAMs like the HRRR have shown some very isolated
convection for a brief few hours mainly east of an Abilene to
brady to Junction line. Odds are low but worth mentioning and have
added some a mention of isolated storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue under an upper ridge into
next week. Temperatures may fall a degree or two Saturday into
Monday, then warm a degree or two, Tuesday into Wednesday. A Heat
advisory again expected Friday over the Big Country, Concho
Valley and Heartland, with heat indices in the 105 to 108 range.
Winds will increase slightly, becoming gusty at times this
weekend, as a lee trough develops in West Texas.

The upper ridge may weaken towards the 4th of July, and along
with a weak cold front July 5, may allow the development of
isolated thunderstorms. This remains beyond the 7 day forecast,
and confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Some very patchy MVFR cigs have developed south of the KJCT and
KSOA terminals early this morning and these clouds may briefly
make it up to those locations before lifting and dissipating.
Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail across the area through
tonight. Convection to the north of the area will continue to
produce a stream of mid and high clouds across the area this
morning but should gradually decrease for the afternoon. Wind
will remain light out of the south and southeast today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    101  79 102  79 /  20  10   0   0
San Angelo 104  78 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   101  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  100  77 100  77 /  20  10   0   0
Sweetwater 103  79 104  79 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       99  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       99  76  98  76 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-
Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07