155
FXUS64 KSJT 020749
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A heat advisory had been issued for portions of the Big Country
and Concho Valley Tuesday afternoon. This is mainly for
temperatures reaching highs of 105. Heat indices are expected to
be slightly lower, as dew points fall to 55 to 60 in the
afternoon. Lows tonight will mainly 75 to 80 degrees.

Otherwise, south winds will be gusty at times Tuesday, bringing
slightly elevated fire weather danger, particularly west of a San
Angelo to Sweetwater to Roby line. Again, dry conditions expected
under upper ridging.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...Hot Fourth of July Followed By a Pattern Change for the
Weekend...

The upper-level high that has persisted over the southern Plains for
the past few days should start to shift eastward by Wednesday.  This
is partly due to the approach of a broad upper trough from the
western US. Heights will be around 594 dam, while 850mb temperatures
look to be in the 20-23 deg C range Wednesday and Thursday.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the 100-103 degree
range, but humidity levels could push the heat indices to around
105.  The HeatRisk tool shows a Major to Extreme category for
Wednesday and Thursday.  This is concerning for anyone who will be
outside celebrating the Independence Day holiday.

By the end of the week, models show the upper trough and a surface
cold front dropping into the region. Chances for rain and
thunderstorms will increase for Friday and Saturday as the front
stalls across the region.  The models have steadily showed this
feature coming more into focus, which increases confidence that
thunderstorms should occur.  Additional chances for rain may occur
during the first half of next week as the upper trough persists.
During this time, rainfall amounts will be largely driven by storm
mode and location. If nothing else, the increased clouds and rain
chances should bring some relief from the oppressive heat for a few
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. South winds
will increase to 10 to 15 knots, with higher gusts, by mid to late
morning. Expect winds to decrease to 12 knots or less by early
evening at all sites except KABI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    102  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 105  77 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   101  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  101  76 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 104  77 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       99  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Coke-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-
Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...Daniels