Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
231 FXUS66 KSTO 262047 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 147 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable, dry, and periodically breezy weather persists through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Hot and very dry weather returns next week with likely elevated heat risk and fire weather concerns. && Key Points - Potential for a moderate to major heat event early to mid next week. - Potential for gusty north wind and very low relative humidity causing critical fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday. Short-Term Discussion (Today THROUGH Saturday)... Ensembles indicate a flat upper level pattern into the weekend favoring troughing late Saturday. This will keep high temperatures near to slightly above normal with Valley highs running from the low to upper 90`s. Delta breeze with local gusts up to 20 mph will be possible during the late afternoons and early evenings providing some cooling, but also enhancing brief local increased fire weather concerns. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)... Over the weekend, ensembles are good agreement that NorCal will be caught between two ridges, with a weak trough overhead as the high pressure builds to our west and east. Despite the trough, heights will begin to increase, keeping temperatures near normal through the weekend. By Monday, the ridge over the Pacific begins to build east over California, increasing heights even further and beginning a warming trend. Currently, in terms of impacts, the NBM has probabilities of Valley temperatures reaching 100 degrees or more at 50 to 80% on Monday, 75 to 95% on Tuesday, and 60 to 90% on Wednesday. Consequently, there is widespread Moderate HeatRisk currently expected Monday through Wednesday, with increasing areas of Major HeatRisk. Confidence is increasing in a moderate to major heat event from early next week heading into the 4th of July holiday. Additionally, Monday and Tuesday will likely see breezy to gusty north and northwesterly winds, with strongest gusts in the northern and central Sacramento Valley in the afternoon and evening. This combined with the very conditions may bring critical fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Sfc wind mainly at or below 12 kts with local gusts to 20 kts in southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley. Southwest winds 15-25 kts over the Delta. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$